Skip to main content

Japan

Focusing on Canada with the drama that is unfolding in Japan is near impossible.  Figuring out the economic impact (never mind the untold human carnage) is near impossible.  What we know, is that Japan's economy will be on its knees for some time, that Nuclear power is in the dog house -- and that Japan will need to use different sources of power to create electricity.

The first natural source of energy for Japan is LNG, already a very big importer of LNG from Malaysia and Indonesia demand is bound to increase, Canada is a major producer of natural gas -- lots of our "classic" oil business is in fact natural gas.

Lumber industry will do remarkably well, once reconstruction starts a new in the summer.  Canada is already gearing up with exports to China, Japan shouldn't be too much of stretch.

The unknown are when the world's second largest economy grinds to a halt, what happens.  this is not an "Indonesia" 2004 it is something else entirely.  One thing for sure the BoC will keep interest rate at their current level for some time...

On Canadian news:

(1) Statistics Canada reported that capacity utilization is at 76.4%, down from 84.3% in Q4 2006, of course the problem with this data is that the denominator (available capacity) is estimated by StatsCan on an annual basis.  It doesn't make much allowance for "capacity destruction" .

(2)  Employment report shows that nearly 80,000 jobs were added in the past 3 months in manufacturing -- its says something about the strength of the Canadian dollar being of somewhat secondary importance.

(3) CAD is moving back towards parity with the USD, only 50c  away from parity.   Oil prices here are the main driver, off by 3% overnight to $97/bbl.

Again these figures only discuss what happened in the past, the tragedy in Japan makes the situation difficult to judge.

Popular posts from this blog

The end of Tesla?

 it takes a special kind of idiot, to think that he can antagonize his entire customer base, and think that it will not impact his business. When Elon Musk went to work for Donald Trump, and created the doge department, he antagonized every liberal, and these people represent 90% of his client base.That’s not a brilliant move. Now Elon Musk is worth hundreds of billions of dollar, so he shouldn’t care a great deal, however, he needs to care because of several other issues. The cyber truck has been a disaster, most have had to be recalled because of defective glue, it’s not a truck, it’s not a car, it’s noisy, relatively uncomfortable, but great as a development platform. What Tesla has learned in making car manufacturing more seamless is truly amazing. The problem was that Elon Musk was so pissed with the Democrats, and with Joe Biden, in particular because of some slight, which were just plain stupid too. By the way, that he decided to support with hundreds of millions of dollar, ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Donald Trump‘s bad bargain

 The entire of 2023 and 2024 when Donald Trump was running for the White House, his mantra was no war, that the Ukraine conflict would be resolved in a day, and that he would do everything not to involve America and war. How the world has changed! He finds himself facing three conflicts; Ukraine, still going on almost 5 months after he became president. Gaza, an unspeakable crime against humanity, is obviously going to go all the way to its bitter end. And finally, Israel’s attack against Iran. It’s important to note, that Benjamin Netanyahu first indicated at the United nation that the Iranian were 3 to 5 years away from having the nuclear bomb. He made that statement in 1995. Therefore, no one is surprised that he uses the same two lines every so often. It’s entirely possible, that 30 years after he first announced it, that Iran has finally developed the bomb. It’s also remarkable that Iran, local power has been destroyed, from Yemen, to Syria, via Lebanon and Gaza to small exten...
Post a Comment
Read more

TACO again, but worst!

 Donald Trump got the rare earth metals that he had thrown away on April 2, liberation day as he called it. What did the Chinese get in exchange? The whole deal, is on the wrap right now. But let’s be clear. It’s the Chinese that have the upper hand.Some of the materials made by the Chinese, are simply unavailable anywhere else. suspicions are that the Chinese got the high-end chips that they lost under Biden. Tariffs will probably return to the level of April 1, and in the end Donald and his friends got nothing for it. It gets worse, Chinese exports to United States are down 40%. The Chinese have found new markets, I probably never gonna buy American grain again. Once again, Donald Trump proved he’s a great negotiator. He got absolutely nothing for his Showmanship. He told the world, that everyone would come and kiss his ass, instead they’re laughing At him. There’s no joke about Donald Trump, a 25 and inherited a huge fortune and proceeded to make it a small one. Bottom line, the...
Post a Comment
Read more