Canada votes on Monday

The democratic process is an amazing thing.  How the mood of a nation can be expressed and make radical changes to the direction of a country, and to the life of its politicians.  A month ago when the Liberal/NPD and Block Quebecois “forced” a no-confidence vote against the Conservative government of Steven Harper, the intent was as follow:

Steven Harper was hoping that his conciliatory budget would provide sufficient ammunition to demonstrate to the population that (a) he didn’t want elections, (b) he had the best and most experienced team to lead the country.  Michael “Iggy” Ignatief was not really a player here, he was not courted by Harper in the budget negotiations – he was bidding his time till the next election.  Jack Layton, the forever leader of the NPD thought he held the most compelling cards; setting himself apart from the other two parties as the one offering a third way.  The Block was for “Quebec” whatever that means.  They have been adrift for years and survive because Quebec “Independentists” cannot bring themselves to vote for the Liberal who stole their dream of a Nation.

In the past 30 days, there has been a dramatic change in the landscape.  Early on the Conservatives’ campaign strategy seem to pay-off:  an aloof leader (Harper would not talk to journalists, and only to pre-selected conservative audiences) with a very disciplined message demonstrated a competent team that “should” be given a majority.  But some times even the best laid plans fail.  There is no doubt that the Harper’s decision to stay on message meant that with nothing to report, news leaders looked elsewhere to fill their pages.  This opened the door to Iggy’s Liberal, the Bloc and the NPD to fill the pages of Canada’s leading newspapers.

There is no doubt that Canadians were offended by the cavalier attitude of the conservative vis-à-vis Canada’s constitution (prorogation & lies to parliament by Ministers), and Iggy was very good at getting that message across, but it’s boring.  Jack Layton was much more interesting with his many “gifts” of OPM (Other People’s Money), and the Bloc had literally nothing interesting to say.  For some reason the confluence of promises the legalistic vision of Iggy and the “Nothing to see here” bloc platform changed Quebecers sentiments.  Despite anything heard outside of Quebec, the last thing we want to talk about in Quebec is independence.  The fight is long over; we are far more worried about getting access to the latest Ipad/Ibook/Iphone.  Moreover, independence is not the fight of Quebec’s youth!  More than half of Quebec’s high schools graduating class of 2010 families were not born in Canada, and do not share the Anglo/French, Catholic/protestant angst that dominated politics in the province over the past 30 years.  The fire of a political movement is its youth, and the youth of Quebec has no interest or stake in the separation of Quebec.

So at the outset of the election and in less than 30 days the Liberal’s and the NPD’s equal standing with the electorate with 20% of the votes has shifted with the NPD rising to more than 30% and still rising, and the Liberals have sunk to 16% (equal with the bloc).  Layton has been eating away at the Bloc’s and the Liberals popularity.  The Bloc’s ineffectiveness has been compounded by its recent stupidity bringing out the “old” guns of the “independentist” movement (Jacques Parizeau, a former Quebec prime minister and survivor of the independence movement in the 1960s…), and Gerald Larose a rabid pro-independence figure that will have nothing to do with Canada -- begging Quebecers to vote for the Bloc (one wonders if Larose ever voted in Federal elections).  Making the Bloc look even more out of touch, and accelerating the process of voter attrition.

Finally, everyone likes a winner, and jack Layton has all the hall mark of a winner, so that even Ontario is looking at him in a more positive light.  It is almost guaranteed (there are no guarantee in politics—except when the votes are counted) that the NPD will be the official opposition, that Harper will lead another minority government that Iggy will retire from politics, disgraced.  However, the big shift here is the potential death of the Bloc Quebecois – that will, in the medium term change the political discourse in Canada.