Friday, September 23, 2016

What the hell?

Ok so I don't look at the markets for a whole day and this is what happens:

  • Stocks are off big time (now what)
  • Oil prices are in "free fall", well down to $44
  • The Loonie (CAD) just took a big dive
Now, the CAD and the price of oil have been linked (correlated) for some years, so the drop of one will impact the other, still the CAD is not doing well today -- a big dive off the USD.  The is also definitive economic weakness in Canada -- but then the rest of the world is not doing too great... As a export country that's bad.

It seems that the new trade agreement between US and Europe are going badly (in fact both France and Germany have said the talks are going badly -- moreover, with elections in the US -- and inEurope) there is limited appetite for new trade deals right now.

Why the markets are off there are the usual culprits; indications are that Q4/16 growth will be sub 2% and therefore its a sign... a sign of something.  Lets be clear after nearly 8 years of an ever growing stock market there is a (warranted) perception that the market is over due for a correction,  

I will tell you this, there is no real sign of recession right now, there are sign of economic slow down, but that's not the same thing, rumors are that the FEDs are looking at raising rates in Q4, but the market has been saying that for more than a year, so...It could all be nothing, Dennis Gartman who's always the seller of doom and gloom is long again.  You pay your money you get your bet..

Overall, and this is important, the market is looking for an excuse to correct, it has not found it yet, but the pressure on the downside is getting very strong.  

Have a pleasant weekend.


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