Obsolescence is a feature of the 20th and 21st century manufacturing process, but does our society require obsolescence. The reason the question is intersting is a relatively recent TED talk with Elon Musk where we spoke about his new solar roofs -- one of the main features was that because the tiles are made of glass they don't wear out. Essentially a solar roof made by Musk's company could outlast the house on which it has been installed.
Modern cars have hundreds of moving parts (on average 1,500) a Tesla model S around 45...The engine has one moving part, the wheels and breaks account for a bunch more, trunks, door handle, steering wheel and pedals -- things that don't really wear out anyway.
Musk's two main products (cars and solar roofs) seem to have very very long lifespan. The often told story is that the first light bulbs were made to last for every, but consumer society allowed manufactures to make them disposable -- true but not for the reason most people assume - the cost of material on the original light bulbs was very high, each very long lasting lightbulb, so the original lightbulb manufacturers looked at cheaper, less durable, material.
Now, a one man revolution is occurring. Not only is Tesla redefining driving -- lets be honest 99.9% of all driving is boring as hell! He is possibly redefining car ownership, and he may well be redefining roofing material and lifespan.
As for the car, the main changed features is the self driving. Once level 4 has been reached -- driving without human supervision, the need to "own a car" may well disappear! Think about it, why own a car when you can own a dozen with friends -- that are shared by the owners when needed? The issue of capital cost is far less important, you may only own 1/3 or 1.4 of a car...It is more than likely that your next car will be your last car! As for solar panels, the new products that Musk has introduced have no lifespan limitation because the tiles are made of glass -- a very durable product. In Musk's words the roof may outlast the house (imaging selling the roof of a house you wish to demolish).
That means that the 20 year roof lifespan is a thing of the past -- this changes things. The implication is two fold first that a substantial capital good will change in the means of ownership. What will be important for new cars is not the features, but the comfort and durability -- because with very few moving parts don't breakdown and hardly wear out.
Truly a new world is emerging. Will Tesla win the self driving contest? It doesn't matter, all car manufacturers are aiming at that holly grail of level 4 self driving cars -- Musk thinks that level 4 will exist by 2020 -- literally one more car.
As a side note, my ex-brother in law owned a DB9, the Aston Martin super car that cost...a lot. I was impressed how uncomfortable the car was on the motorway-- it was, like most high performance cars, tuned to perform best on the Nuremberg Ring. Important fact, the car was registered in the US, it would never, ever run on the Nuremberg ring! Yet every day, my brother in law would use the car to get from the office to the house -- not on the Nuremberg ring, but on the highway!
Modern cars have hundreds of moving parts (on average 1,500) a Tesla model S around 45...The engine has one moving part, the wheels and breaks account for a bunch more, trunks, door handle, steering wheel and pedals -- things that don't really wear out anyway.
Musk's two main products (cars and solar roofs) seem to have very very long lifespan. The often told story is that the first light bulbs were made to last for every, but consumer society allowed manufactures to make them disposable -- true but not for the reason most people assume - the cost of material on the original light bulbs was very high, each very long lasting lightbulb, so the original lightbulb manufacturers looked at cheaper, less durable, material.
Now, a one man revolution is occurring. Not only is Tesla redefining driving -- lets be honest 99.9% of all driving is boring as hell! He is possibly redefining car ownership, and he may well be redefining roofing material and lifespan.
As for the car, the main changed features is the self driving. Once level 4 has been reached -- driving without human supervision, the need to "own a car" may well disappear! Think about it, why own a car when you can own a dozen with friends -- that are shared by the owners when needed? The issue of capital cost is far less important, you may only own 1/3 or 1.4 of a car...It is more than likely that your next car will be your last car! As for solar panels, the new products that Musk has introduced have no lifespan limitation because the tiles are made of glass -- a very durable product. In Musk's words the roof may outlast the house (imaging selling the roof of a house you wish to demolish).
That means that the 20 year roof lifespan is a thing of the past -- this changes things. The implication is two fold first that a substantial capital good will change in the means of ownership. What will be important for new cars is not the features, but the comfort and durability -- because with very few moving parts don't breakdown and hardly wear out.
Truly a new world is emerging. Will Tesla win the self driving contest? It doesn't matter, all car manufacturers are aiming at that holly grail of level 4 self driving cars -- Musk thinks that level 4 will exist by 2020 -- literally one more car.
As a side note, my ex-brother in law owned a DB9, the Aston Martin super car that cost...a lot. I was impressed how uncomfortable the car was on the motorway-- it was, like most high performance cars, tuned to perform best on the Nuremberg Ring. Important fact, the car was registered in the US, it would never, ever run on the Nuremberg ring! Yet every day, my brother in law would use the car to get from the office to the house -- not on the Nuremberg ring, but on the highway!
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