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AMLO Maya Train -- update 5,000,000 and the costs keep on rising

 On Tuesday, at his daily two-hour press conference where AMLO takes no questions from any real journalists, but rather is fed questions from his own team, he revealed the projected costs for two of three iconic mega projects:

(1) Maya Train:  Until about a month ago the cost of the Maya train was estimated at US$ 8 billion.  It started at less than four and had slowly, and unofficially, risen to eight billion a few weeks ago, then FONATUR revealed that the now planned cost had risen to 200 billion Mexican Peso or about ten billion dollars.  Ok, a 20% increase considering inflation, it's expensive.  Already at eight billion, it was the equivalent of $5.3 million dollars per kilometer, about 40% higher than the highest estimate, but ok, its a government project, and its Mexico, then about two weeks ago FONATURE announced that the Maya Train would now cost US$ 11.3 billion or about seven and a half per kilometer.  On Monday the Presidential bombshell, the total cost was now estimated at US$ 20 billion.  almost 70% higher than the last FONATURE estimate just a few weeks ago, and almost two and a half times more than the initial budget (again the first amount was US$ 3 billion which was ridiculous).  Of course, AMLO found some UNAM economics professors to say that this was going to create a lot of economic benefits for the Yucatan...sometimes I had my old profession!  

(2) Dos Bocas refinery:  Bechtel offered to build the Dos Bocas refinery for about US$ 8 billion with the specification that AMLO wanted.  AMLO at the time said it was too expensive and didn't meet the Mexican's standards....now in the same press conference AMLO indicated that the total cost, excluding needed pipelines, would be nearly US$ 18 billion

We will never know how expensive the Felipe Angel airport will cost, it was built by the military, but what is known is that it has 14 gates, that it!  This was announced a few weeks ago, that the airport would only have 14 gates, I mean Billy Bishop airport in Toronto is a small downtown commuter airport and it has 24 gates...

Anyway as a Mexican friend said last week, it doesn't matter.  AMLO presidency has been one of the worse by any metric (education, health care, security) and his party remains wildly popular, as my friend said, nothing to be done, just watch the carnage and like in the 1980s get your money out and have an exit strategy.  

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