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What is the likelihood of Civil War in the US?

 Obviously, this is an impossible question to answer.  Some would say that the January 6, attack on the Capitol was the first nail in the coffin of democracy.  Recently, several studies have shown that nearly 40% of Americans believe that a strong president is more important than democracy.  The same percentage that believes that "White America is under threat".  There is a smaller percentage of the population 30% who believe that violence is acceptable.  Many Americans perceive democracy as a non-event as politics is a non-event.  They have seen the US government attempt to set up democracies in the Middle East (no not really but still) and they "see" the economy of Russia and China thriving -- again not really but with low information, voters will believe almost anything, that fits their social anxieties, and what the talking heads tell them

So it could happen, but:  Civil wars don't start by chance, they are engineered and it's hard to see what group in the US would push for that, because of the law of unintended consequences.  The instigator is rarely the winner of these actions.  A perfect example is US Senator Josh Hartley who was encouraging the mob on January 6th, until he realized that they were pissed, they didn't recognize him and he had to run for his life, in a very "Benny Hill" kind of way.  

Many Americans see democracy as the US president saw the village of Mai Lai "to protect the village you have to destroy the village".  Americans tend to be low information voters, years ago I was staying with some Americans in DC, at the Hay Adam hotel, across from the White House.  I said to one of the two Americans, "I wonder why the US flag is at half mast on the white house"  one of the two, said to me, "that's not the White House, it's too small!" (it was the White house -- he was a client no point in making him look like a bigger fool I just kept my mouth shut -- I have no skin in that game)

It was, but he didn't think the White House was such a small building!  Americans generally don't understand the meaning of democracy and care more about the football score than they do about the Supreme Court.  If they vote, they either vote the same way their parents did or based on stuff they heard on the TV the night before.  Americans care so little for democracy that fewer and fewer bother to vote!

There is no use in pointing out the obvious, most Americans are not listening anyway.

P.S. As a Canadian I am concerned with the strength of our border with the US, sometimes I wished that Trump had built the wall between the US and Canada, oh wait he didn't actually build a wall between USA and Mexico.

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