When AMLO took power in December 2018 he announced three projects and the cancellation of a fourth;
1) Build a new refinery in Dos Bocas to process oil into gasoline (cost US$ 2 6 8 18 billion)
2) Build a new airport in Mexico City that would cost US$ 5 billion
3) Build a tourist train in the Yucatan that would cost US$ 3 8 11.3 20 billion
and
4) Cancel the building of the "private" Texcoco Mexico City airport (it would cost nothing to cancel since it's private), which was built during the term of the previous administration
Well, almost 4 years on and the results have been less than what was advertised!
1) Dos Bocas total cost so far is near US$ 8 18 billion and although inaugurated by the President a few weeks ago (July 2022) the plant will not be able to process any oil for at least 18 months. In addition, no pipeline has been planned (or built) to link the new refinery to the country's oil network (at least another billion in cost). But FONATUR has nothing to do with the building of pipelines...and the refinery is half the size it was first advertised.
2) Felipe Angeles International, the new airport in Mexico City is open but only operates a few flights a week. There are technical issues unresolved and also logistical issues, the total cost is unknown since the project is being built by the military. Airport's single largest issue is receiving approval from IATA, mainly because of glide slope issues with Benito Juarez International airport. The airport is also half the planned size (14 gates rather than 28), and access from the city center is difficult (e.g. AMLO took two hours to get to the airport -- at 5 am on a public holiday, from the national palace...). The new access road was completed in early July 2022
3) The Maya Train has been a disaster almost from the beginning, the lack of planning means that the train will not link the city centers of Merida and Campeche to the network (Merida Station will be 30km away, and Campeche station will be 10km away from the old city). The only town to have access will be Cancun. The cost has exploded from an initial estimated cost of US$ 4 billion, which was unrealistic to an eye-watering price of US$ 10 billion a few weeks ago, which has now been updated (July 2022) to US$ 11.5 20 billion. The poor planning and fight with the builders have added hundreds of millions in costs, but still, 11.5 20 billion is a high price tag.
4) the Cancelation of the Texcoco Airport a then semi-private initiative that was to have cost nothing to the Mexican government. It actually cost slightly more than US$ 7 billion -- don't have to trust the Mexican government, the data is available on the web because all the debt was issued in Europe and all the instruments that were accelerated because of the cancellation were enumerated. The lenders got, not only their principal back but also some penalty interest.
Despite all this bad news, all these wasted billion AMLO and his government remain popular with the population. It will be interesting to see how they feel when the crush really occurs. For Mexico the outliers are as follows:
1) Water in the North of the country -- there is a massive drought, yes the Mexican government has an agreement for water rights with the US government, but there is no water available anyway.
2) Power in the North and the Southeast. The north is already seeing brownouts. The Southeast that has been growing quickly because of security issues has not seen any new gas power generation built in more than a decade...brownouts are almost certain there too, and soon
3) Dos Bocas will not be operational by the time the presidential election arrives.
4) the new airport is in limbo, it has neither the approval from AFAC nor IATA, without these approval aircraft that land there would not be insured. Although many airlines have announced service to the new airport few have delivered (I believe one carrier flies every other Monday). Although, today (20/07/2022) there is no flight departing from NLU. In July 2022, IATA cancelled Mexico's Category 1 classification; so no new international flights will be allowed from any Mexican airport.
DESPITE THESE REALITIES, AND THAT SECURITY IS WORSE THAN EVER, EDUCATION IS IN TERRIBLE SHAPE AND PUBLIC HOSPITALS HAVE LIMITED SERVICES, MORENA WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY WIN THE PRESIDENCY!
Go figure
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