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The Ukraine Dilmna

At the beginning of the war with Russia, there were about 44 million Ukrainians, there are fewer of them now, as the battle with Russia rages on.  Many have left the country, first to their neighbors but increasingly joining the rest of the Ukrainian diaspora all over the world -- often these are the most productive, and its unlikely that they will ever return.

The tragedy of Ukraine is that it is insignificant in terms of strategic value, but it's on the way to two strategic barriers for Russia, the reason why the war between Ukraine and Russia must be resolved there is that if it's not, it is almost certain that nuclear confrontation will occur -- Russian cannot use nuclear weapon in a region that has to cross...

Like China, Russia has a demographic problem, fewer and fewer young people are around, unlike China, Russia is resource-rich, with energy, material, and food export potential to the rest of the world.  Maybe not the best food, but Russia has been a huge supplier to Africa of both food and fertilizers for years.  

The Russians have always felt insecure in their territory, this is not Puttin's first war of aggression, it's the eighth or ninth, and it's the first time that its opponents have put up a serious defense, not that anyone thought that they would.  In fact, strategically the Germans and the Americans were of the opinion that it would be over in a matter of days.  That's why Germany's defense minister remained in post for so long after the beginning of the hostilities (the minister of defense principal role, in her mind, was to completely disband the german army).  Not joking here!

For the Ukrainian force to be "victorious" they need a kill ratio of 8:1 and not the current 2:1 they cannot afford to fight the Russians on their terms, they have to be able to deploy tanks to defeat the Russian artillery that is shelling the country into submission.  On the one side, Europe has had one of the warmest winters sot hat energy consumption has been far lower than projected --- but it also means that Ukrainian forces have been unable to deploy their tanks against the Russians (the soil is too soft).

 So the question is what is a victory for either side?

Russia:  Complete destruction of Ukraine will work just fine for Russia as it has zero interest in the country, it's just a waypoint to other destinations in Europe (Romania, Poland & Hungary).  Russia is already doing this and has exterminated the local population in the regions it has conquered (at least that's what the Western press is reporting).

Ukraine:  Complete restoration of the country including retaking Crimea (unlikely still) to the 1999 borders.  Of course that makes little sense because there is literally nothing stopping the Russians from starting another war.  So the ONLY way Ukraine wins is if it is able to force a regime change in Moscow.  That means that Putin is gone and replaced by another.  

For this to happen, there needs to be sufficient loss of life for Russia to protest.  Clearly, Ukraine is in a position to starve Crimea -- they've already blown up the bridge that links Crimea to the rest of Russia.  However,  Crimea still gets all its water from Ukraine via a canal...this so far has not been cut, but there are 2 million ethnic Russians in Crimea -- and probably 200,000 Russian solder based there.  It is a heartless view, but the body count is the only thing Russian leaders will pay attention to in terms of losing the war.  

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