Everyone assumed that the Americans would have to be kicked out of the world and forced to return home. No one anticipated that the Americans would lose interest in the world order! The first "serious" crack in the system was when America abandoned Subic bay in the Philippines. I was very active in the Manila political circles at the time for unrelated issues and one day was asked when I thought the Americans would reengage with the Philippines, for although they bitched about the American presence it provided the country with money and security.
Out of curiosity, I reached out to a friend in the Air Force who had previously been posted in the Philippines and asked him if he was planning to return soon, he was a good friend. He surprised the hell out of me when he said the Philippines had been taken out of new rotations for some time now, and that the Volcano activity just accelerated something that was already planned but had not been discussed with the local government.
He told me that in confidence, and I was already working with the US government on other projects, it was not my rodeo or my battle, but that closure was a massive blow to the Philippine government, who initially touted that as a success, but in reality had assumed that the Americans would eventually come back -- they didn't.
The closure was accelerated by a volcanic eruption, but already the US was thinking of its role, and the need for forward bases in the Far East, especially in countries that were less than welcoming to the Americans. Korea was always a flash point with North Korea. In early 2000 there were nearly 80,000 troops in South Korea, now there are less than 25,000. In fact, the only country that still has a sizable US military presence in Japan with nearly 50,000 troops in the country, which today accounts for nearly 1/4 of all foreign-based US military troops. As late as 2010 the US had more than 400,000 foreign-based military troops this is now down to 200,000 in total.
The composition of the US fleet is now mostly focused on aircraft carriers, which are a conflict force deployment and not a police force (destroyers and smaller vessels) that are being retired at high rates over the next five years.
Turns out the German anti-American sentiments that were supposed to push the Americans out of Europe "worked" as America's presence in Germany has continually been downgraded, there are less than 20,000 active members of the Armed Forces in Germany now, and the bulk of them are there providing services (medical) to American troops around the world.
Neither Bill Clinton nor Barack Obama were very interested in the rest of the world, both had been raised during the cold war and in a sense, America then stood as having "won that fight". For all his faults Trump was of a similar opinion and was probably the first Republican to state that not only were the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq a mistake but that America should cut its losses and get out (something Obama had already started). In fact, Trump was even clearer, the bargain of globalization that America had struck during the cold war was no longer serving America,s interest, and with the blessing of congress he changed the nature of the US armed forces -- away from a policeman of the world to a guardian of Ameria's interests.
The amazing thing is that Biden has actually kept ALL of Trump's trade measures, to the surprise of everyone in the world, of course, as someone said, he corrected the typos and passed actual laws instead of relying on presidential edicts. But in the end it's the same. America see's its zone of influence as the America and little else, it is energy and food secured and has a generally attractive demographic situation
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