The Energy crisis
The effect of the war in the Persian goes gulf are about to generate critical shortages in our economy. The reality of the United Kingdom, is that our primary energy imports are from the United States, Norway, and North Africa. That means, that none of our energy is sourced from the Middle East. So for the United Kingdom, the problem will not be supply. It will be price.
In its war with Iran, Donald Trump has decided to blockade the straight of Hormuz in order to deny income to the Iranians. In this fight, America is largely energy independent. It produces and exports more than it imports. It’s a net balance, as opposed to true energy independence, that most of the light and sweet crude produced in the United states has to go elsewhere to be processed. America’s refineries were built for heavy sour crude.
This shift by America from being the policeman of the seas to Mercantile protector of the interest of North America is a long expected shift, except no one thought it would occur so quickly. This means, that America will begin to impose its will on the world strictly to its perceived advantages, short term or otherwise.
The unique kingdom faces an important dilemma. Since the Falkland war, the UK has been neglecting its sea based power. Successive government, despite the admiralties cries, has cut supplies to its force with the idea, that the role would be entirely provided by the United States. In this war, Britain has no skin in the game. It does not depend from the Middle East for supplies. It depends on North America, as a client, it depends on Norway, as a client. But at no time does it rely on the Straight.
However, our country does not live in isolation, and is dependent on many outside factors for economic growth. The truth, is that the United Kingdom will suffer like the rest of the world because of the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The question now, is how bad will it be?
The number one problem that Donald Trump faces is his deep unpopularity, and his crumbling numbers in the polls. The massive defeat of Victor Orban in Hungary means that the far right’s plan to take over the Western world, is in retreat. The war in Iran, the attacks against Europe and Greenland, Venezuela and his veil threats against Cuba and Canada, has made enemies of long-term allies for no real gain, either domestically or internationally. In general, Americans do not care what happens in the rest of the world. The panic about the automation of the draft, tells you everything you need to know about America. Suddenly, for many American families, there’s a perception real, or otherwise, that they would have to pay with their blood for the excesses of their president. This translates so far in a massive shift by the popular vote, which has been expressed in several recent by election, with massive, shift away from the Republicans.
What this means for Donald Trump is not only that he has become a lame duck, is that there’s a real threat that he would be impeached. At the end of the day, for a man that cares about appearance above all else to be impeached like Nixon would cement his legacy as one of America’s biggest political failure.
Among the Talking Heads, the overall impression, if that Donald Trump has no idea how to get out of his quagmire. In addition, he is surrounded by incompetent sycophant, who add nothing to the game. Replacing incompetent idiot with other incompetent idiots does not solve your problem.
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