Thursday, February 2, 2012

And the there was one!

One of my favorit Australian blogs is Steve Keen's Debtwatch.  This is a sceptic, but in the right way.  His view on Australian housing is systematic and his 2011 call what right on the money -- Australian house price have begun falling (Australia has a lot of inflation compared to US and Canada), so for 2011 house prices fell (in nominal terms by 4.8%), but adding inflation and the figure becomes 10% -- I was not kidding!

His view for 2012, more of the same, another 10% drop.  Canada and Australia were the last two OECD countries that had not seen a real correction in house price, in both regions house prices have been growing faster than national income, and so eventually, the wall had to be hit.

It now leaves Canada as the only OECD country still seeing rising home prices (although the price creep has slowed apparently).  As of November 2011 house price (YoY) were 7.4% higher than in 2010 -- but for the month the prices had fallen by 0.23% for October (Teranet - National Bank house price index


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