Friday, April 25, 2014

Gold, new economics et Friday stuff

Well two weeks ago, GS and Merrill stated that Gold was a sure thing to hit $1,045/oz.  Guess what its now at: $1,300 so again a bad call by the boys.

Although I've not started it, it now looks like I've found the  an economist for the 21st Century".  I bought his book! I have not  yet started reading Thomas Piketty book  Capital for the 21st Century, but it seems that he's found what ails us!  No wonder the WSJ and the GOP hate the thing.  It explains that the normal state is the all powerful 1%, and that the period between the first world war and the new century are the aberration.

The markets do what markets do!  The DOW, NADAQ and S&P 500 are all testing their all time highs; but again they retreat, once again failing to achieve their exalted goal.  BTW I, like many others, are bemused by the strength of the markets.  Earnings are high, but their quality dubious.  Most economies are on the edge (Look at the QE program and ECB "buy every bond" strategy).  My favourite bellwether stock: Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) [no position] continues its upward trajectory (since January its been on fire +14% since Jan 1).  First, excellent results and positive guidance , suddenly thing are looking  in the world of construction/mining etc.  Yet Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) is down and Barrick (TOR:ABX) is going nowhere.  Strange!

Then, when my buddy asked me last week what to choose between FB and AAPL I said I don't know tech stock, but apparently made a case for FB --  because I said that each dollar of earning for FB was 8 times more valuable than AAPL.  That was apparently a reason to buy FB.  I just don't get it!  I told the guy that I don't understand tech stocks... and he should actually buy dividend paying stocks, and he hears buy Facebook.  Guess what today FB is down $1 since "my call" (really that's what he called it) and AAPL us up $40.   Now, and this is always the problem AAPL had great results -- better than anyone expected (back to my Analysts know nothing), but frankly so did FB, who had a "blow out" performance.

We're back into the zone of "who is more popular"


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