So early this morning the futures for the S&P 500 were pointing up, and surprise surprise at the opening at 9:30 the market opened up +15 points. It's now 11:30 and the markets are flat for the day. How will it go from here is unclear. The rest of the world is not doing so well, the FTSE is down 0.74 and the CAC40 is down 0.35 (now both are closed for the day).
The market seems to want to go down, despite economic data (backward looking) showing a healthy economy -- GDP growth at 3.5%, unemployment at a historical low, consumer confidence and PPI at all time high! Nevertheless, most commentators feel that a recession is increasingly likely, first a substantial portion of the GDP growth was caused by the massive corporate tax cuts that were put in place late in 2017. But the hangover is on its way -- government deficit is massive (despite what the GOP said when they enacted the tax cuts) and the only solution is to cut entitlement -- since neither Democrats or Republicans will ever propose a tax increase. For now (next 12 months) food stamps are safe, Medicaid and Medicare less so. This is the perfect opportunity for Trump to push massive cuts across the government services.
The 2019 budget is for a $4.4 trillion federal government budget, of which about half are Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security (although SS is financed separately so is largely untouchable). About 30% of the rest are "discretionary expenses" (defense, education, energy, housing etc etc), and the rest is debt service. So let's say that SS and Defense are off the table, defense alone is 15% of the federal government's budget. That leaves only Medicare and Medicaid as the places where you can cut costs.
And that's what Trump will probably propose; massive cuts to all departments (shut down education, housing etc) cut funding for basic research (because that can all move to China now)
The facts are, the best way to cut expenses is to cut revenues
The market seems to want to go down, despite economic data (backward looking) showing a healthy economy -- GDP growth at 3.5%, unemployment at a historical low, consumer confidence and PPI at all time high! Nevertheless, most commentators feel that a recession is increasingly likely, first a substantial portion of the GDP growth was caused by the massive corporate tax cuts that were put in place late in 2017. But the hangover is on its way -- government deficit is massive (despite what the GOP said when they enacted the tax cuts) and the only solution is to cut entitlement -- since neither Democrats or Republicans will ever propose a tax increase. For now (next 12 months) food stamps are safe, Medicaid and Medicare less so. This is the perfect opportunity for Trump to push massive cuts across the government services.
The 2019 budget is for a $4.4 trillion federal government budget, of which about half are Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security (although SS is financed separately so is largely untouchable). About 30% of the rest are "discretionary expenses" (defense, education, energy, housing etc etc), and the rest is debt service. So let's say that SS and Defense are off the table, defense alone is 15% of the federal government's budget. That leaves only Medicare and Medicaid as the places where you can cut costs.
And that's what Trump will probably propose; massive cuts to all departments (shut down education, housing etc) cut funding for basic research (because that can all move to China now)
The facts are, the best way to cut expenses is to cut revenues
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