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airline business: Yesterday I was told that I was an idiot!

Yesterday, an acquaintance called to point out that I was an idiot if I thought that solving the airline business problems was as simple as I made it to be!  I pointed out that this was not a "how to list" but provide to the layperson a sufficient understanding of the industry's complexity, and how different players made different decisions based on valid concerns and realities, that applied to their situation -- Singapore airline decision process is very different than that of American airlines!

So he no longer thinks I'm an idiot, just a "higher functioning moron"  I call that an improvement!

However, my ex-friend (he was really really really upset) did make one massive error (and that's where things got ugly) he was sure that the older aircraft would come out of retirement.  I spoke with some acquaintance at ILFC (Now AerCap -- not so sexy a name) he said that out of the 1,000 aircraft they expected maybe 50 not to return to service --- ever (these usually will not be owned aircraft but managed aircraft on behalf of third parties).  The point I am making is that they've got a very modern fleet (avg 6.0 years), some lessors have really ancient (like 15-year-old aircraft).

My ex-friend disagreed and said that too much capital was invested in these aircraft to be written-off, I told him there are two issues; the cost of bringing an aircraft back -- and the potential income it could generate.  In 2018 I was looking to start a small airline in Mexico -- very dedicated routes (thank God it didn't work out -- we would be broke now), but we could get EMB145 for virtually nothing (the lease rate for these aircraft should be around $250,000 per month -- we could get them for a 10th of that!!!

The owners were simply keeping the aircraft flying in the event that demand for the type ever came back (that may even be a bet that pays off since demand for smaller aircraft is rising), also kudos to Airbus for buying the C-series from Bombardier.

So I believe that the cost (and time) to bring these old aircraft back is not worth the effort (especially bigger aircraft like the A330, early models) the B747 is probably a goner as is the A380 -- it is hard to imagine that capacity demand will resume to what it was in 2019.  again I could be wrong -- the deal I could get with the EMB145 is probably unavailable now!  because there is a scramble towards smaller aircraft.

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