Farmer Diaries

 it’s been a while. To be perfectly blunt I’ve been busy, and repeating the same old thing over and over gets old quickly. Early this morning, the Americans decided to reveal all the information on the Epstein files. There is no doubt, that the data that will come out will be bad for Trump, but the worst of it is that no one will believe that everything is out. Maga and its cohort will still believe that some files are hidden away, especially when there are rumours that the department of justice has been trying to clean up the file of all the names of Republicans.  We know the data is bad, because of defrocking of Andrew Mountbatten (A.k.a. Prince Andrew).  It will do nothing to Trump, he’s Teflon and will remain Teflon. But more importantly is now officially a lame duck president. For the past year, Donald Trump has worked very hard at stopping the publishing of the Epstein paper and has failed spectacularly. Of course he’s now playing the role of the guy who wanted the ...

 The most amazing thing about the actions of ICE against the South Carolina plant being built by the Koreans, was the gleeful commentary by ICE. According to the leader of ICE, the raid had followed from months of investigation against the company. The implication, is that this was not an accident but actually by design. It’s hard to understand how America wins from this. Korea was well on its way to meeting Donald Trump’s expectation of massive investment in American manufacturing. It’s unclear how the bosses in Seoul Will react to the ice comment. However, the nearly 375 Korean workers are being deported and will be unable to return to the United States for at least a decade. this is where it gets interesting. The Korea workers were there to install the machines that were to make the plan function. That means, that the Koreans no longer have the necessary staff to get the plant working. Depending on how much the Koreans have spent on the new plant, either they will slow down the ...

 That's how some are referring to the National Guards that are currently deployed in Washington DC, they have nothing better to do than to pick up the trash from the parks...kind of sad

I just spent the last five days in Washington.  First, I did not fly commercial, we flew on a Challenger, and the immigration and customs reception was fine, polite even. Goes to show that some pigs are more equal than others. The trip itself was a favor for a friend, the conversations were with the government, some of the biggest players in the administration.   My observations are general: People I've met were polite but generally clueless and uninterested in the work.   It was evident that despite my counterparts being very senior, they had no authority.   Not only that, they absolutely did not want authority The discussions were about very serious topics that impinge the relationship between the UK and the US, and yet there was no sense of urgency, or even a desire to correct what was clearly incorrect information.   The knowledge base was shockingly shallow, and the American bench was very thin.    On my return to the UK after ...

Don't even think about it!   There are powerful forces in place to ensure that even if Trump is greatly diminished that he will remain in power for the foreseeable future.   Think of Regan, Joe Biden, both clearly diminished by the end of the term, and yet protected by the party and the White House. What you can expect is less Trump in your face, fewer visits and speeches, but he will be there long after he is no longer competent. It is the nature of the beast.

 The Numbers for Truth social stock price are pretty bad. Not bad in the sense that the company is now severely undervalued, considering it makes no money, has no prospect of ever making money, it’s shocking that it is still worth $17.55 a share. Yet, it’s only three bucks from the lowest level. It’s ever been since acquired the business that is now true social. Before that, it was just an acquisition company.  so, the reality is that true social it’s not a real company, it’s a vanity project, and the quarterly reinvention,It’s proof, that the company has no real business plan. Last quarter, the business plan was to create some kind of video feed company, now, it’s acquiring bitcoin, apparently or some kind of cryptocurrency. At best, it’s Mildly amusing at  worse. It’s a scam.

In 1984, the total Japanese sovereign debt as a percentage of GDP was below 20%. At the end of 2024, Japan's sovereign debt as a percentage of GDP was 229%. What happened in these 40 years? Quite simply, the Japanese were the first to employ quantitative easing to turbo-charge economic growth. It all started after the crash of 1987. Japan’s growth had been anchored on an unsustainable real estate market. Japan, like many Asian countries, is a country of savers. The truth of the matter is, Japanese have consistently saved between 25% and 45% of their income, that money was put in savings accounts and pension designated savings accounts, to be used when they retire. In addition, the Japanese government never eases the rules for pension funds to invest in other things than domestic sovereign debt, or Japanese equities. The truth is, that over 90% of Japanese savings have been funding Japan’s debt. 95% of Japan's sovereign debt is financed domestically. As of the end of 2024, Ameri...

 this will probably sound incredible, and the whole exercise started almost by mistake. Do United Kingdom, and Japan, both agreed to ratify trade agreements with the United States, both of these nations, did this weeks ago. A rather reasonable question was ask of the Japanese by a French journalist, as to the process for having the trade agreements in place. So far, so reasonable. however, there’s a small problem. And it’s a Japanese who gave away the farm. According to the minister of foreign affairs in Tokyo, there has been no exchange of document between the Japanese and the American government. The enterprising journalist, whose lives in Japan, made inquiries. With the Vietnamese, foreign affairs department, the Indonesian, foreign affairs department, and eventually, with the European union for foreign affairs department in all cases, he found the same answer. Since the initial announcement of trade agreements, absolutely nothing has been done. I think it’s important to underst...

The "war" between Jerome Powell and Donald Trump on interest rates is missing one critical point.   The real world.   America is increasingly facing steep interest rates when it borrows on the international markets.   The last $100 billion 30 Year bond auction was a disaster.  It is unlikely to improve, because of the weak dollars, many investors are "re-thinking. their dollar holdings, and are coming to a similar conclusion; they have either too much or enough.    The American government's total debt burden of 37 trillion dollars has a duration of five years, that means that about 20% of the total amount has to be refinanced every year.  Of this total about 2/3rd is finance in the international markets (or it has for the past few decades).  In addition, under Trump the deficit is rising quickly from 6% of GDP to 9% next year.  Investors are smart, they know that a big refinancing bubble is an opportunity – hence the last 10 auctions hav...

The jump in the PPI from an expected 0.3% rise to an actual 0.9% is about as bad news as the President of the United States could get.   Unfortunately, it's getting a lot worse, the month on month increase in price to consumers of fruits and vegetables is nearly 39% in July... The first figure was long expected, but the scale of the rise surprised, which means that producers are now starting to pass on to their clients the tariff costs.   That was always going to happen and it is now. The price of fruits and vegetables is the natural consequence of two factors, both political; the tariffs on imported fruits and vegetables from Mexico (35%) and Kenya (25%) and Brazil (50%), the hit there is instantaneous (note: Brazil and Kenya are the largest exporters of coffee to the US).   These avocados that used to cost $2.00 are now $2,60.   In addition, the raids by ICE have increased the cost of domestic fruits and vegetables...because many farmers are una...

 To call it a nothing burger would be an insult to nothingburgers!   Trump got nothing no commitments to anything from Putin, who reiterated his initial position, Putin got the red carpet treatment (literally and figuratively).  He started a war of agression and Trump let him off entirely.    This is so embarassing, I cannot wait to see how Newsmax and Fox spin this little "peace conference" even the tame fox journalist was at a loss for words.

At first, the meeting between Putin and Trump was heralded by Trump as being the solution to the Ukraine war.   Over the past three weeks the expectations have been managed.  Now, everyone hopes that Trump doesn't do anything stupid.   Granted the likelihood of that happening is slim to none. At first, Trump screwed up (again) and he said there would be "land swap".  It was President Macron who told Trump publicly that any changes to the territorial integrity of Ukraine woud involve the President.    Trump wants a win, and it's looking increasingly unlike that he will get one.   First, because Trump has nothing to offer, and Putin has no incentive to change the way he deals with Trump, he's been successfully playing the man as a fool for years. At best, expect an outcome identical to Trump's meeting with the leader of North Korea.  Big words no action,  Lets be clear Trump is there to "negotiate" with Putin.  Putin has no ...

Canada has decided to fight fire with fire, and imposed "export restrictions" on strategic material using the exact same rules that Trump used to impose Tariffs on Canadian imports of Steel, Aluminum and Copper.  The impact is large shortfall in the import of these materials in the US aerospace and automotive industry in the US forcing US companies to shut production down. Lets be clear the impact of a trade war between the US and Canada will be felt mostly in Canada were nearly 40% of GDP is export related.   In the US is less than 10%.    In addition, Canada's steel and aluminum production is now exported to Europe duty free, and both metals are considered "Low Carbon" product - since 90% of the prodution process relies on hydro power. Interesting times, 

Most people will not know that Elon is one of the most hated men in America. On the bright side his board still loves him, they just gave him 30 billion in share grants over the next five years, because when you already have 200 billions you need another 30.   On the positive side, Tesla always aimed at abandoning the luxury market.  People don't understand how small it really is. The number of cars sold for more than $100,000 is remarkably small (although it is growing as the cost if US made cars grows by at least 10% per annum...and tariffs will make it worse).  The future of Tesla has to be the 3 and the Y, because they are mass market vehicles.   Tesla's current problem is its founder and CEO, sure, but also its product, which has not evolved much, and now there are many competitors -- granted the vast majority are not American..so the tariffs there may help, maybe!  Don't forget all the aluminum that is in a Tesla. The first X and S disapeare...

Simple, nobody is interested... 

If Donald Trump has a trade policy, and there is a school of thought that trade policy occurs every day between 11 and noon.  It is similar to what Americans did during the cold war, but instead of promissing security pacts, they restrict or open the American goods market. Credible stories emerged that at lunch time on April 2nd the list and size of tariffs had not been created yet.  Which explained why places with zero human population saw tariffs.  On August 1st the "extension" for all countries to negotiate ended" and additional tariffs were announced on the imports of certain goods from Canada and Switzerland 35% and 40% respectively. The "trade ageements" that were struck with Europe and Japan are confusing,  it seems that things were agreed to which were outside the scope of what either party could deliver:  Energy to Europe, and investment onto the US.   Americaès energy export infrastucture is operating at capacity, the new energy purchase from...

Yesterday, FIGMA raised nearly $1.2 billion from an IPO on the New York stock exchange.  It gave the company an initial valuation of $19 billion.  Odds are good that 99.99% of people, especially hear in the UK have ever heard of FIGMA, and what it does.  Think of it as the Google Doc of programming,  it's a massive simplification, but the analogy is not incorrect, it allows to create all kinds of programs in a collaborative format. Unusually virtually all the cash raised will be used to allow early investors to cash out from the company.  still it is amazing that a relatively new platform, about five years old is worth $19 billion.  Also the IPO was 40 times oversubsribed... Sometimes the creation of weath leaves me in shock!!!

 The issue is simple. What percentage of the economy is dependent on tariff goods? The truth, is that the US economy is far more closed than people understand. People genuinely believe that all manufacturing has ceased to exist in the United States all given to China on the altar of woke policy the truth can be further from That statement. Only about 15% of US GDP is related to foreign trade. Of that amount, slightly more than half is from Canada in Mexico. And half of that is energy. What that means, is that about 7% of US GDP is tariff dependent. The proof in the pudding, is how little money tariff generates. People think that 30 or 50 billion is a lot it’s not in an economy that has $3 trillion. The impact on the US economy will be less visible but not absent. Inflation hasn’t occurred yet first because tests have hardly started to bite, but more importantly it’s such a small percent of the economy. Now certain things are critical. The rare earth metals from China were critical....

 The deal with the European Union is interesting because the only people that really penalizes are American. It’s Americans who pay tariffs, not Europeans. Now I don’t want to ever emphasize the reality, one thing for sure, I want to put any money on the idea that the Europeans will buy a lot of American weapon systems, especially after the Americans have made it clear, then they can turn off the systems. The two biggest items on the agreement on the promise that Europe will purchase $300 billion worth of energy From America every year. The second, it said the European investors will increase investment into the US market by $600 billion. to the idea, that America will be able to double its energy exports, which is what is implied here. In 2024, America explored nearly $300 billion worth of energy, which included petroleum products, LNG, and coal. The truth, is that US sports are operating capacity. Someone’s gonna have to spend serious coins to increase the size of the ports. On t...

 The last few weeks have been miserable for Donald Trump. The Culmination had to be the almost daily revelation about the birthday book that is at the Epstein‘s home in Florida. Virtually every politician, or famous person, who was named in the book, who had contributed birthday wishes to Epstein, indicated, that they actually had written the letters, or cards. One single glaring exception. Donald Trump now let’s be clear. The whole Epstein thing has been pushed massively by Donald Trump and his friends. It was a conspiracy of all conspiracy. The blowback, he is facing now, is internally driven by his base. Now the elections, the midterms are in 18 months. That’s an awfully long time. 

 if it wasn’t so tragic, it would be funny. A week ago, the CEO of Nvidia, made a strong support of Donald Trump, saying that the policies of the American government was very good for US enterprise. Unfortunately, for Mr. Chang, four days ago, the statement for the end of June To his investors said a very different story. The truth, in the SEC filings, was the current administration policy was killing the business. You don’t need to Know much more to realize, but there’s two realities; one for politicians and One for the rest of us. The truth, according to SEC filing, is that the US government’s position on trade and Terrace is killing the business model for companies like Nvidia. He won’t stop the CEO to say the exact opposite when he’s a guest to the American president

 One of my best friends, is an investment banker in London. One of the big firms, for the past 25 years, has been going to New York at least six times a year. And to other destination at least four or five times a year all of these trips to the United States. My friend is British, the same way I am, except his grandparents were born in Jaipur, that’s in India for those who don’t know. My friend, is A 59-year-old banker, with a British passport having been born in London. The last two times he flew to the US. He was harassed by immigration. Now my friend is not white, and his name is not Anglo-Saxon, in fact his name is very very Indian. But he’s also very very British. Now twice, it’s been stopped at immigration for over three hours, this is despite having a visa for multiple entry. It’s not really a visa, it’s just a permission to come to United States. Pretty standard stuff, and very useful for a guy like my friend who travels to the United States every single month. Now, He’s im...

 honestly, it’s like the Americans don’t want any tourist. In Trump‘s big beautiful bill, a small addition to travelling foreigners expenses was added. A new $250 fee which in some circumstance could be reimbursable. Personally, I wouldn’t hold my breath.It is evident, that we are seeing the beginning of Fortress America. They don’t want foreigners, they don’t want imports, they we rich and alone. Close the border, close the blinds and tell everyone to go home.  It is evident, that we are seeing the beginning of Fortress America. They don’t want foreigners, they don’t want imports, they we rich and alone. Close the border, close the blinds and tell everyone to go home. in other news, the Epstein scandal continues. The way Donald Trump has enlisted the help of every agency in the government, including Congress, tells you everything you need to know about this scandal. Donald Trump is implicated. To go back in history, it’s important to understand that everything about the Epste...

 it takes a special kind of idiot, to think that he can antagonize his entire customer base, and think that it will not impact his business. When Elon Musk went to work for Donald Trump, and created the doge department, he antagonized every liberal, and these people represent 90% of his client base.That’s not a brilliant move. Now Elon Musk is worth hundreds of billions of dollar, so he shouldn’t care a great deal, however, he needs to care because of several other issues. The cyber truck has been a disaster, most have had to be recalled because of defective glue, it’s not a truck, it’s not a car, it’s noisy, relatively uncomfortable, but great as a development platform. What Tesla has learned in making car manufacturing more seamless is truly amazing. The problem was that Elon Musk was so pissed with the Democrats, and with Joe Biden, in particular because of some slight, which were just plain stupid too. By the way, that he decided to support with hundreds of millions of dollar, ...

 The only interesting affair about the Epstein debacle, is how this man was able to a mass, such wealth. When he died, his wealth was in the hundreds of millions of dollar he flew business aircraft, and yet he never ran a hedge fund, he never ran anything. He just seemed to exist, surrounded by rich people. There’s an old saying, follow the money and this is clearly not what happened. No one seems interested in understanding where this man’s wealth came from that’s a good question and that’s the question. No one wants to talk about. Finding Jeffrey Epstein‘s diary that shows everyone who flew to his island or on his aircraft is worthless,it’s certain that Donald Trump is often there, they were friends for two decades, not just friends, close friends, and they both like young women although it seems that Mr. Epstein like them even younger. The only funny thing about the Troubles that Trump is facing right now is that he’s the one who was dog, whistling the whole Jeffrey Epstein list...

 Actually, it’s pretty easy. Ignore them. You have no choice, Trump will change his mind every week for the next 3 1/2 years. That’s how Donald Trump operates, what’s important is the Donald Trump show. Nothing else. everyone knows that industrial investment in the US is lower now than since Covid. When the economy was effectively shut down. No one is building anything, firstly, because ice is continually harassing building sites, but more importantly companies cannot budget. From one Monday to the next, the whole trading world can be completely different. worse, yet, for the Americans, you’re better off, not investing in the United States at all, and just getting hit by the tariff once. What it does to America, is unclear. One thing for sure, for the next 18 months, there will be no industrial investment to the country. Maybe after the midterm, if and only if the Republicans are-chastised, will things get back to normal. But whatever normally is now, we bear no resemblance to what...

 I got several comments from friends and acquaintances, that I was exaggerating about how Americans were seeing foreigners, and how our reception at our last meeting in Northern Florida was disproportionate response to local unpleasantness. Now, I want to be clear, what I do with my tourism dollar is my business, and mine alone. As I’ve indicated in several previous post, almost every single visit I’ve undertaken in that country over the past year has had some form of unpleasantness.. If I’m honest, it’s the only country I visited where people feel perfectly at ease to insult you for no good reason, just because they’re assholes. The difference this time, was the escalation. But even if there had been no exclamation, the general mood in the country, and behaviour of its Citizens makes me less than interested in going back. Will I change my mind? Maybe, but life is short as a damn big planet. As a friend of mine said a few weeks ago, if she want to go skiing, try Chile, or even Japa...

 it’s time to start ignoring America. If any demonstration was necessary to indicate that there are no plans, but to disrupt, it was Donald Trump‘s announcement one week after his administration concluded a trade agreement with Vietnam, that Terrace would actually be 20% and not 11% as Had been agreed just a week prior. The Trump administration has no rhyme or reason, just division of a bull Boy that doesn’t remember what he did the previous morning. There’s no point in engaging demand, instead country should work hard at protect protecting their economy. imposing, across-the-board tariffs against American export, is idiotic. Targeted to support domestic economic goals is on the other hand a worthwhile initiative. Let’s be honest, there’s almost nothing we can do that. Will affect the American con in any global scope. People entirely forget that the US economy is by far the closest. Mexico, Canada, account for almost 60% of all trade. And about half of that is energy. The key, is g...

 Here we go again, now it’s 200% tariff on pharmaceutical imports, and 50% tariff on copper. Honestly, it’s hard to keep track of the man. You miss a day or two and suddenly you’ve missed massive increase in tariffs. It’s not quite evident, that all this is performative. Trump has no interest in anything but to be the centre of attention. Nothing is even more important than talk about Donald, and he loves it when people talk about him, even better when they kiss his ass. it’s hard to believe, that the world will have to suffer through 3 1/2 more years of this kind of bullshit. One thing for sure, countries are taking note, that any agreement with Trump is probably not worth the paper on which has been written. Since he will change it in their word in minutes.

 This conversation occurs because I was with my mechanic this morning. Sam, my mechanic on the farm, was bitching that new cars were not as reliable as old cars. what amazes me in his comment, was that the reality is otherwise. I remember my first jaguar. It was always broken, it was unreliable gas guzzler that cost a fortune. I remember, that I had owned the car for nearly 2 months when it decided it no longer started. No reason, the battery was fine, it just would not work. The Jaguar mechanic eventually found that the starter was broken. On a two month old car.  i’ve owned my current Toyota for nearly a year. It replaced an ancient, and reliable Land Rover, that unfortunately suffered from a broken axle, and severe rust. It was already 50 years old. Granted the Land Rover required, continual assistance, it had a carburetor, that needed to be checked every so often. The Toyota, a 2024 model, has required a single oil change. Every morning, I use the damn thing, and not once ...

 over the weekend, Saturday night to be precise, I joined several university colleagues for an annual get together in Cambridge. In total, there’s about 20 of us, not every year as everyone available, but as we grow older, and reminisce more about our lives, more and more are present. This year, the entire group was together for the first time in almost a decade.  One of the participant works for the government. His career has not been spectacular, but has been consistent through all administration over the past 20 years. He is considered by all as an expert in his field. We were sitting together, nursing a brandy, when asked point blank, how the British government had achieved a trade agreement with the Americans in such a short period of time. his answer was telling, he said well the home team needed a win, and Trump also needed a win, so we signed a shorthand version of a trade agreement between Britain and America, that covered about two dozen aspects of trade. It is by no...

 Imagine, if there were election today, the reform party would have 35% of the vote. Labour 30% and the conservative at 12%. The truth, it’s the reform party  is jam-packed with idiots, but populist always win. Let’s be clear, the current labour government is giving them a clean break. It’s actually Rather incredible how the reform party is basically setting up the political agenda. It seems that labour party, and the government, is unable to find its footing. Despite doing some good, they give Reform Party oxygen. Strange situation.

Every few months for one reason or another, my wife and I end up in the US. We just spent a weekend in Florida, for a wedding. We weren’t in Miami, rather north, near the border with Georgia. I noticed with my wife, for the first time in a long time, the immigration process was somewhat unpleasant. In the past, we show a British passport proof of a hotel and a return ticket. do The fingerprint thing and be in our way in a few minutes. This time not so much. It wasn’t the third degree. But there is a series of questions that had to do with a reason for our visit, what our best I would call politically motivated questions. Honestly, in 30 years of travel it was the first time ever such a thing happened. We returned two days ago, and both of us looked at each other and agreed the future travel to the US should be minimized, if not entirely canceled. The trip overall was unpleasant. When people heard a British accents disparaging comments were made more than once. We were not feeling very ...

 The entire of 2023 and 2024 when Donald Trump was running for the White House, his mantra was no war, that the Ukraine conflict would be resolved in a day, and that he would do everything not to involve America and war. How the world has changed! He finds himself facing three conflicts; Ukraine, still going on almost 5 months after he became president. Gaza, an unspeakable crime against humanity, is obviously going to go all the way to its bitter end. And finally, Israel’s attack against Iran. It’s important to note, that Benjamin Netanyahu first indicated at the United nation that the Iranian were 3 to 5 years away from having the nuclear bomb. He made that statement in 1995. Therefore, no one is surprised that he uses the same two lines every so often. It’s entirely possible, that 30 years after he first announced it, that Iran has finally developed the bomb. It’s also remarkable that Iran, local power has been destroyed, from Yemen, to Syria, via Lebanon and Gaza to small exten...

 Like cryptocurrencies, the financial market has been trying for years to integrate AI. Yesterday, I had a meeting with my broker in London.  we do this twice a year. Especially now that I have a new broker, my old one having retired about 18 months ago. My new broker, is a 37-year-old woman Sandra, who knows more about financial product than I will ever remember. She’s fully aware that I was a strategist in the same company for quarter of a century and so her five brokers, and three strategies signed me down a room and showed me the first results of AI in finance.  I have to be honest, so far I’m not very impressed. Granted these are early days, and companies can’t afford to make a mistake with AI. Was it quite amusing to force an AI system to sprout pro Nazi sentences, it’s another thing for it to propose an investment in a company that is actually bankrupt. The key here is for AI to separate the wheat from the Jeff. So far it’s not doing great. It gets the basics right...

 Imagine the Prime Minister of New Zealand welcoming the Kansas City Kings, football team and saying, wow all that batting real men don’t need padding. you can bet some serious dollar that the 2028. World Cup will not occur in the United States, after the American president told the Juventus football team, which was visiting the White House for some reason, that it was strange for grown men to play a girls game. I wish I was joking, it’s actually what he said. Anyone who has seen baseball no it’s a poor derivative of cricket. Complicated rules, and a rather boring game. Granted cricket two can be boring at times. I won’t even get into basketball. Which scores of 102 to 99, who really cares about a two point basket. They’ll be another 50 if not 100 in the same game. The reality is, the football World Cup organization is trying to breakthrough in United States. The problem is that the United States already has too many games. From hockey, to basketball two American football and two w...

 For most of my life, what has been done to European Jews during the second world war by the Germans resonated with one of the most despicable actions ever taken. No one in his right mind can deny the atrocities around the holocaust. The problem arises that after almost 80 years, the nation of Israel, it’s government, and its people are in the process Of eradicating the people of Gaza. Granted, they’re not using gas chambers. It seems that mortar and bullets are their preferred tool. 80% of Israel’s seem to detest the government and its leadership in particular embodied by Benjamin, Netanyahu, but on the other side, they support the war in Gaza, the extermination of a people they do not like. I would like to point out, that not many other people like the residence of Gaza. Egypt, that shares a border with Gaza has created a Fortified and impenetrable border. In fact, the plight of the residence of Gaza Seems to fit a narrative for most of its Co-religionist.  The problem, and ...

 Do you want to hear something crazy? There are 169 electric vehicle manufacturer in China right now. The question is, how can they survive? The answer is, they can’t. The Chinese communist party sees its industrial base, not as a source of income, but as a source of jobs. When people work, and earn a living, they don’t rebel, they don’t demonstrate, they don’t question the reality of the CCP. For the past decade, the Chinese government decided that it would become a leader in the electric vehicle business. It would be polite, to state, that it has achieve beyond its wildest expectation. The reality, is out of the 169 companies, less than a dozen account for 80% of total market. The other 160 company, share. The balance. this hyper competitive market situation has led BYD the world‘s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, to sell one of its newest, and smallest EV for just about $7000. There is simply no way, that BYD makes money on that vehicle. In addition, that vehicle used to b...

 The ugly truth about Predictions on global warming it’s frightening. Whatever the reason is, mean temperature is rising.  Virtually all scientist, believe that humankind is responsible for rising global temperature. It makes a certain amount of sense, we are the only ones making pollution. The problem is far more serious. While scientists, agree that rising mean temperature is a problem, they have no idea in what way it is a problem. over the weekend, one of my oldest friends from university visited the farm. He was impressed by the farms, low carbon footprint. It was when I revealed, the carbon footprint had never been the driver, rather efficiency, and the trauma of Covid. Had been the real driver. my friend and I were having a nice whiskey, actually my favorite, Jamison‘s. An Irish blended whiskey that I’ve loved for almost 30 years. My friend is a data scientist. His job is to look at complex system, and analyze them. And when he says complex system, it means 30 or even 1...

 Donald Trump got the rare earth metals that he had thrown away on April 2, liberation day as he called it. What did the Chinese get in exchange? The whole deal, is on the wrap right now. But let’s be clear. It’s the Chinese that have the upper hand.Some of the materials made by the Chinese, are simply unavailable anywhere else. suspicions are that the Chinese got the high-end chips that they lost under Biden. Tariffs will probably return to the level of April 1, and in the end Donald and his friends got nothing for it. It gets worse, Chinese exports to United States are down 40%. The Chinese have found new markets, I probably never gonna buy American grain again. Once again, Donald Trump proved he’s a great negotiator. He got absolutely nothing for his Showmanship. He told the world, that everyone would come and kiss his ass, instead they’re laughing At him. There’s no joke about Donald Trump, a 25 and inherited a huge fortune and proceeded to make it a small one. Bottom line, the...

We run a relatively large farm in the Eastern part of the United Kingdom, this part of the UK has been recognized as farm land all they way back to the Doomsday book, in the case of our core farm, since the publication of the little doomsday book.   Yes, almost a 1,000 years of farming history.     When we decided to "quit" the City nearly a decade ago, we both wanted to return to our family roots, here in Norfolk, where both my family and that of my wife originated.  Imagine our surprise when the ancestral property of my wife's family came on the market, we thought it was a sign.  However, my wife decided to "commission" a study on UK food production, its pain point, what was profitable and what was not.    First, both end of the food production, which take on most of the risk are the least profitable, farming and distribution to end users, (aka supermarkets) are the least profitable part of the equation.   The best example is minc...

 Forgetting the hype for a minute, it is evident that Ukraine has been incredibly successful in destroying both Russian infrastructure, and several of its bomber fleet aircraft. According to defence sources, the Ukrainians were able to place several drone launching platforms, and modified trucks, that were able to send swarms of drones over Russian airfields hundreds of miles from the Ukrainian border. According to the Ukrainians, more than 40 aircraft were destroyed 2/3 of which were bombers, which is a huge problem for Russia.  It means, the Ukraine has taken inexpensive drone launch Platforms and use them hundreds of miles for the border, destroying irreplaceable military assets. what no defence chief will say now, is that the battlefield of the 21st-century share the same characteristic as a battlefield of the early 20th century. When the horse drawn Cannon, and the horseback cavalry, were replaced by truck pulled artillery, and tanks. The tool of the 21st century, to enga...

 The continual and unhinged tariffs being imposed by the orange one continue to surprise the financial markets. To a point, where they created a nickname for the trade, it’s not that they’re calling Donald TrumpTACO It’s rather that his short fuse, quick temper and absolute inability to Keep track of what he did the previous week, creates the situation where new Tariffs are replaced old ones on a weekly basis. The increase on steel and aluminum terrace from 25% to 50%. It’s a clear case of complete stupidity. The reason he gives is notable, he gives parties 90 days negotiate, and after 10 days when there’s no firm result, He imposes new tariffs. but, what if chaos is the objective? What if destabilization is a goal in its own right. What if his intention is to show that the world, economic order, and that the capital system as it has been working for the past 70 years has to be shown as being wrong?   If your plan, is to create a New World order, then the first thing you need ...

 It stands for Trump’s always chickens Out. Unfortunately, for the orange one, the truth is that he has a tendency to chicken out. The 50% tariff on European goods lasted an entire weekend actually it was announced on Friday by Sunday it was over.  The date was shifted from first of June to 15 of July. Rumours are that no one can talk to Donald Trump. He knows what he wants to do and he does it independently Of the consequences. The truth is probably that at the end of the day he doesn’t really care, it’s not something he loses sleep over. For him it’s about the show, being in the press every single day, ideally using the entire bandwidth. His biggest problem, is that those who have tried to negotiate are treated worse than those who held their position to Donald Trump. China did not say a single word and the tariff went from 145 to 30% they did not negotiate. On the other hand, others did try to have a serious conversation with the White House.  They found out the White ...