Japan has the highest debt to GDP ratio at nearly 220%. In comparison America just passed 100% level a few months ago, a first since 1945. Europe is Hovering between 120% and 150% if you take consideration all the unfunded pension liabilities in Europe.
The past month has been traumatic for the Japanese bond market, the reason no one knows about it is that the Japanese bond market is largely a domestic. Japanese pension funds are obliged by law to invest nearly 97% of their assets under management in Japanese government bonds.
A price shift occurred at the beginning of May when the 40 year benchmark bond price rose from 2% to 3%. This 100 basis point increase translates into a decrease in the value of a bond purchased on May 1 of 20%. what happened? Not too complicated to figure out the Japanese government and the Japanese Parliament. We’re talking of massive increase in debt to speed up spending to stimulate the economy. At one point, the whole exercise becomes a shell game, and it seems that Japan has reached that point where the bond buyers no longer believe the game and are taking their foot off the gas which has led to this unprecedented rise in Japanese interest rates on long dated bonds.
on Wednesday of last week, the Japanese Prime Minister had to go on national television, and announce that there was no plan to massively increased. The current budget deficit, and that in reality taxation would have to rise to meet any additional government expenditures, this marks a massive change in policy for the Japanese government, which has since the early 1990s resorted to massive deficit spending to keep the economy growing. In 1991 the debt to GDP in Japan was below 40%, over the last 35 years, it has grown to 220%.
What does this mean for the United States? Well first, the cost of borrowing United States has risen. Fivefold in the past four years from less than one percent in 2020, which wasn’t normal, to slightly over 5% today.
The idea of borrowing when the cost is lower than GDP growth was born in the early 1990s as economically efficient. The problem for America today, is that GDP growth has been below 2.5% for nearly 3 decades and now borrowing costs are substantially higher than potential GDP growth which should result in Reduction in borrowing, but for 30 years America has lived beyond its mean instead of taxing they have been borrowing just as the baby boomer generation retires.
The first sign of real problems occurred in the past few days, so far member of Congress have not understood the implication of what’s going on in the Bond market, it’ll be interesting to see if the senators take the same view. Right now America is looking to raise his deficit from 7 1/2% to 8 1/2% that will more than worry the bond market. The implication of this is twofold first as yield on corporate bone rise their ability to increase capital expenditure. But in addition, any projects contemplated will have a higher return threshold requirement. None of this is good.
so far the capital markets have shrugged off the implication of this massive shift. The reason simple 99% of participants have never been a situation where interest rates were rising instead of falling, and therefore have no way of judging what it means as return requirement for share rise to match the higher return required in the bomb market.The two are treated as separate markets, separate instrument, however, they are not. They are a part of the same basic understanding of how to fund expansion and your business.
The two are treated as separate markets, separate instrument, however, they are not. They are a part of the same basic understanding of how to fund expansion and your business.
Note. : I am not making comments about how investors should invest, quite the opposite. However, any portfolio manager has to wonder how to position his portfolio for two things; first optimize the risk profile for his clients portfolio, and second minimize the downside risk of sudden pricing increases.
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