Skip to main content

Trade negotiations: Trump style

 What  I hear from my friends in high and low places is that the UK/US trade deal is there to be made...eventually.   It helps that the US has a trade surplus with the UK, it's unclear how the negotiations will really proceed when they start, right now there's a framework, for the UK this is important America is its single largest trading partner.

The Americans reached a "deal" with the Chinese where they are reducing tariffs down to 30% for 90 days.  The problem is that to get the trade engine going again will take about 90 days...so if you are an importer of Chinese goods what do you do?  For TEMU and others like it, it's instant relief although they go from zero to 30%.

What to make of the White House is a different conversation than what we expect from the headlines.   Does it matter? Yes and no, the engine of trade is now full of sand, and will remain so.  Will anyone trust Trump and the Americans?   I don't know but only a fool with make decission based on the weekend's agreement.

In other news time to sell and short big pharma, Trump announced that he will ask for most favored nation clause in the cost of medication in the US, so that the Americans benefit fromt the same prices as other countries, lets be clear the US government, under Trump 1, made it illigal to negotiation drug prices in bulk like Canada and the UK regularly do...

Once again Trump created the pain and is now "removing" the pain!




Comments

Popular posts from this blog

what people get wrong about tariffs

 The issue is simple. What percentage of the economy is dependent on tariff goods? The truth, is that the US economy is far more closed than people understand. People genuinely believe that all manufacturing has ceased to exist in the United States all given to China on the altar of woke policy the truth can be further from That statement. Only about 15% of US GDP is related to foreign trade. Of that amount, slightly more than half is from Canada in Mexico. And half of that is energy. What that means, is that about 7% of US GDP is tariff dependent. The proof in the pudding, is how little money tariff generates. People think that 30 or 50 billion is a lot it’s not in an economy that has $3 trillion. The impact on the US economy will be less visible but not absent. Inflation hasn’t occurred yet first because tests have hardly started to bite, but more importantly it’s such a small percent of the economy. Now certain things are critical. The rare earth metals from China were critical....

The end of Tesla?

 it takes a special kind of idiot, to think that he can antagonize his entire customer base, and think that it will not impact his business. When Elon Musk went to work for Donald Trump, and created the doge department, he antagonized every liberal, and these people represent 90% of his client base.That’s not a brilliant move. Now Elon Musk is worth hundreds of billions of dollar, so he shouldn’t care a great deal, however, he needs to care because of several other issues. The cyber truck has been a disaster, most have had to be recalled because of defective glue, it’s not a truck, it’s not a car, it’s noisy, relatively uncomfortable, but great as a development platform. What Tesla has learned in making car manufacturing more seamless is truly amazing. The problem was that Elon Musk was so pissed with the Democrats, and with Joe Biden, in particular because of some slight, which were just plain stupid too. By the way, that he decided to support with hundreds of millions of dollar, ...

Demographics

 I am preparing a kind of family tree for our children so that they know where they came from.  In my family I am the only survivor, although my brother and sister died recently they were both in their seventies (a story I told already).    It was a fun process, but it provided more than that.  First, I married relatively young I was 26 when I married and nearly 30 when our first child was born.   I was looking at my ancestors.  On my mother's side, she had 6 siblings, Four died before the age of 30, two in war, and two from illnesses.  Only she and a single sister survived.   The two boys had a child each but they died in WWII, and the other sister died as an infant.   what is interesting is that every one of my mother's siblings had children in their early 20s.   I know that my mom was hardly 20 when my brother was born.    What is remarkable is that among our friends, we are the only ones to have fou...