Skip to main content

Canada Vs. USA 30 year bond rate differential

For a first hand look at the impact of Keynesian fiscal and monetary policy:



20 year look-back at the differential interest rates on 30 year T-Bills in Canada and the U.S.  In 1994, the Canadian government facing a budget deficit of nearly 10% of GDP took drastic action, and cut governmental spending dramatically, which resulted in federal government surplus between 1999 and 2007, which is reflected in the confidence shown by Canadian bond holders.  

As of 2002, Canada has seen its 30 T-Bill trading inside the American government's rate, and the trend appears to be accelerating.  Canada's Bank of Canada is convince that fighting inflation is difficult and requires persistent effort on the part of the government of the day and the central bank (Compared that to Bernake's 60 minute comment of last Sunday).

Over the past 3 weeks, the trend has gotten even more pronounced, one suspect that the market was buying the rumor of QE2 and "selling the news" ever since (especially since the market was expecting/hopping for a bigger number than $600 billion).  The swap rate on 30 years T-Bill has risen by nearly 70 bps since QE2 was enacted.

Canada is the only OECD country pushing for restrictive monetary policy (ok not very restrictive).

Popular posts from this blog

The end of Tesla?

 it takes a special kind of idiot, to think that he can antagonize his entire customer base, and think that it will not impact his business. When Elon Musk went to work for Donald Trump, and created the doge department, he antagonized every liberal, and these people represent 90% of his client base.That’s not a brilliant move. Now Elon Musk is worth hundreds of billions of dollar, so he shouldn’t care a great deal, however, he needs to care because of several other issues. The cyber truck has been a disaster, most have had to be recalled because of defective glue, it’s not a truck, it’s not a car, it’s noisy, relatively uncomfortable, but great as a development platform. What Tesla has learned in making car manufacturing more seamless is truly amazing. The problem was that Elon Musk was so pissed with the Democrats, and with Joe Biden, in particular because of some slight, which were just plain stupid too. By the way, that he decided to support with hundreds of millions of dollar, ...

Donald Trump‘s bad bargain

 The entire of 2023 and 2024 when Donald Trump was running for the White House, his mantra was no war, that the Ukraine conflict would be resolved in a day, and that he would do everything not to involve America and war. How the world has changed! He finds himself facing three conflicts; Ukraine, still going on almost 5 months after he became president. Gaza, an unspeakable crime against humanity, is obviously going to go all the way to its bitter end. And finally, Israel’s attack against Iran. It’s important to note, that Benjamin Netanyahu first indicated at the United nation that the Iranian were 3 to 5 years away from having the nuclear bomb. He made that statement in 1995. Therefore, no one is surprised that he uses the same two lines every so often. It’s entirely possible, that 30 years after he first announced it, that Iran has finally developed the bomb. It’s also remarkable that Iran, local power has been destroyed, from Yemen, to Syria, via Lebanon and Gaza to small exten...

TACO again, but worst!

 Donald Trump got the rare earth metals that he had thrown away on April 2, liberation day as he called it. What did the Chinese get in exchange? The whole deal, is on the wrap right now. But let’s be clear. It’s the Chinese that have the upper hand.Some of the materials made by the Chinese, are simply unavailable anywhere else. suspicions are that the Chinese got the high-end chips that they lost under Biden. Tariffs will probably return to the level of April 1, and in the end Donald and his friends got nothing for it. It gets worse, Chinese exports to United States are down 40%. The Chinese have found new markets, I probably never gonna buy American grain again. Once again, Donald Trump proved he’s a great negotiator. He got absolutely nothing for his Showmanship. He told the world, that everyone would come and kiss his ass, instead they’re laughing At him. There’s no joke about Donald Trump, a 25 and inherited a huge fortune and proceeded to make it a small one. Bottom line, the...