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Very Strange

Several months ago, I added the Google Analytic functionality to my blog. The idea was to see who read my stupid thoughts.  I began this blog principally as a way of formulating my ideas outside of work environment.  Although my clients like to know what I think about Canada’s economy, they usually have their own economist on staff that will tell them their own view of the world.

I started this endeavor because so little is written about Canada and its economy (aside when there is a big buyout as was the case a few weeks ago).  Until recently, I averaged between 5-15 readers per day.  I don’t publicize this website, and I keep it intentionally anonymous.  Not because I speak of my work, in fact I never even cite my own firm’s research (not that it’s not good, it’s just that I only take publicly available information – some research I access is proprietary, to avoid problems I maintain a complete embargo).  Over the past few days/weeks (actually it stared November 15) the web traffic to my website has grown dramatically, I’m not talking about from 5 to 10 readers per day, I’m talking from 5 to 75 readers per day.

I though I should give you my biases:

  • I consider myself a terrible market economist.
  • I’m more often wrong than right
    • I was right on inflation for 2010 (Stay muted throughout 2010)
    • I was too optimistic on GDP growth for 2010 (0.2% too high)
    • I was wrong on capital market performance (market did great)
    • I was wrong on energy costs (they rose)
    • I was wrong on potential for early federal elections (didn’t happen)
    • I was wrong on the US midterm elections
    • I never thought that gold would hit $1,400 in 2010 

  •  I tend to be excessively bearish (I’m working on this)

  • I consider Canada’s economy marginally successful, but compared to the rest of the OECD, Canada is      a paragon of virtues.

  • I suspect that Canada will face stagflation in 2011 and maybe 2012

  • I believe that the Euro will not survive (in its current incarnation) beyond 2012

  • I believe that the US is facing massive fiscal problems.

Anyway, thanks for reading!

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