Skip to main content

Very Strange

Several months ago, I added the Google Analytic functionality to my blog. The idea was to see who read my stupid thoughts.  I began this blog principally as a way of formulating my ideas outside of work environment.  Although my clients like to know what I think about Canada’s economy, they usually have their own economist on staff that will tell them their own view of the world.

I started this endeavor because so little is written about Canada and its economy (aside when there is a big buyout as was the case a few weeks ago).  Until recently, I averaged between 5-15 readers per day.  I don’t publicize this website, and I keep it intentionally anonymous.  Not because I speak of my work, in fact I never even cite my own firm’s research (not that it’s not good, it’s just that I only take publicly available information – some research I access is proprietary, to avoid problems I maintain a complete embargo).  Over the past few days/weeks (actually it stared November 15) the web traffic to my website has grown dramatically, I’m not talking about from 5 to 10 readers per day, I’m talking from 5 to 75 readers per day.

I though I should give you my biases:

  • I consider myself a terrible market economist.
  • I’m more often wrong than right
    • I was right on inflation for 2010 (Stay muted throughout 2010)
    • I was too optimistic on GDP growth for 2010 (0.2% too high)
    • I was wrong on capital market performance (market did great)
    • I was wrong on energy costs (they rose)
    • I was wrong on potential for early federal elections (didn’t happen)
    • I was wrong on the US midterm elections
    • I never thought that gold would hit $1,400 in 2010 

  •  I tend to be excessively bearish (I’m working on this)

  • I consider Canada’s economy marginally successful, but compared to the rest of the OECD, Canada is      a paragon of virtues.

  • I suspect that Canada will face stagflation in 2011 and maybe 2012

  • I believe that the Euro will not survive (in its current incarnation) beyond 2012

  • I believe that the US is facing massive fiscal problems.

Anyway, thanks for reading!

Popular posts from this blog

what people get wrong about tariffs

 The issue is simple. What percentage of the economy is dependent on tariff goods? The truth, is that the US economy is far more closed than people understand. People genuinely believe that all manufacturing has ceased to exist in the United States all given to China on the altar of woke policy the truth can be further from That statement. Only about 15% of US GDP is related to foreign trade. Of that amount, slightly more than half is from Canada in Mexico. And half of that is energy. What that means, is that about 7% of US GDP is tariff dependent. The proof in the pudding, is how little money tariff generates. People think that 30 or 50 billion is a lot it’s not in an economy that has $3 trillion. The impact on the US economy will be less visible but not absent. Inflation hasn’t occurred yet first because tests have hardly started to bite, but more importantly it’s such a small percent of the economy. Now certain things are critical. The rare earth metals from China were critical....
Post a Comment
Read more

Trump and Venezuela...

The US now owns Venezuela…and not in a good way.  America is not known for its nation building skills, and yet it now owns the disaster that is Venezuela.   Starvation and exodus are the natural progression.   In addition it will become a haven for narco-terrorists, more so than it already was. I am sure that Trump and his friends really thought that little attack very well…I guess that he will now attack Iran now.  
Post a Comment
Read more

Demographics

 I am preparing a kind of family tree for our children so that they know where they came from.  In my family I am the only survivor, although my brother and sister died recently they were both in their seventies (a story I told already).    It was a fun process, but it provided more than that.  First, I married relatively young I was 26 when I married and nearly 30 when our first child was born.   I was looking at my ancestors.  On my mother's side, she had 6 siblings, Four died before the age of 30, two in war, and two from illnesses.  Only she and a single sister survived.   The two boys had a child each but they died in WWII, and the other sister died as an infant.   what is interesting is that every one of my mother's siblings had children in their early 20s.   I know that my mom was hardly 20 when my brother was born.    What is remarkable is that among our friends, we are the only ones to have fou...
Post a Comment
Read more