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8th signal: Canada Q2 growth near zero

Number for retail sales (Consumption) are out this morning, nominally up 0.7%, but removing vehicle the growth rate drops to -0.1% (there's a good reason for removing vehicles sales -- they tend to be cyclical).   Specifically here vehicle volume sales were up 1.6% -- so heavy discount was to blame for accelerated sales at the beginning of the summer.

Retail sales increase in June
(Source: StatsCan)

On the other hand a positive aspect is gasoline sales that were down 1.3%, not in volume but in price, the first time (in several quarters) where energy price "positively" affected inflation (CPI dropped from 3.3% to 2.7% in a quarter).

Aside from that not much to say about sales, except that it is a further proof (if any was needed) that Canadian are putting the breaks on spending.  Its not entirely clear what is driving this trend among consumers (probably American news of a possible new recession -- apparently now a 40% probability), since Canadian still (rightly) live by the motto "America sneezes, Canada catches cold...".

There is increased pressure from the financial markets for a loosening of monetary policy, not only in the futures market but also when looking at the CAD, which has under performed virtually all commodity currencies

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