This morning reading a number of blogs and newspapers every mention of Canada was that we are either near a recession or in a recession. I guess it just doesn't feel like a recession yet. Granted the market is pricing a reduction on short term interest rate before the end of the year (around 25 bps), but that is all. Canadian bank stocks are down a bit from their high, but are still within 10% of their historic highs -- maybe that's a signal.
Not that I am in the secrets of the gods, but rumors in the market is that all Canadian banks are doing remarkably well with predicted strong Q2 performances ... again, I have no special knowledge here but it is interesting that National Income numbers, retails sales, construction (Industrial commercial and personal) are all strong (and rising) demand for construction permits is up in all three of the last quarter...
Maybe the missing link is that since about 1/3 of Canada's GDP is trade related it doesn't matter how well Canada is actually doing -- its the performance of its trading partners that matter. Still, commodity prices are back int he $90 range ($88/bbl this AM for the WTI and Brent is around $110) says that demand is still rising.
Call me a skeptic, but I just don't see any sign Canadian recession