Tuesday, November 22, 2016

DJI hit 19,000 -- historical all time high!

Is this the last hurray is this for real (sounds like a song from Queen).  Nevertheless last night the DJI hit an new all time high of 19,000 (its a bit off today).  Market sentiments are hard to judge and understand.  It is still unclear if Trump will be full of hot wind, will be a game changer or a complete and utter disaster.

From his meeting, and lambasting of the US new network one would suspect that Trump will be looking at Congress to reduce the strength of the first amendment; because apparently they've been mean to Trump and his friend (what they did to Obama was far worse), and also that the actors in a play would sound their discontent -- that and his for ever fight with SNL.

His "A Team" looks like a bunch of crazy right wingers from Jeff Session as attorney general who see's nothing wrong with the KKK, to Mike Pompano (CIA) -- one of the most aggressive Benghazi attackers of Clinton with numerous investigation -- that showed no wrong doing to Michael Flynn ex-military with very close ties to Putin.  Others being considered for the EPA are well know anti climate change proponents.  One aspect that links them all is that they were early supporters of Trump and are very hawkish in their world view.

Interestingly enough Netanyahu (Prime minister of Israel) has forbidden any cabinet members from contacting Trump or his team (bizarre).

In terms of economic impact on the US:

On one side is the risk of trade protectionism (rumors of calling China a currency manipulator) would bring immediate tariffs to Chinese goods and would generate inflation in America.  However, a trade war would certainly lead to a slowing economy.  Therefore the other side is weakening economic growth and the risk of deflation.

Moreover, the idea that Europe should play a larger role in its defense is a valid statement on the part of Trump.  However, its not like Europe is going to pay America, what would happen is that European economies would have to increase military spending, which would lead to a more multi-polar world.

I suspect that Trump is now getting daily briefings on the problems of America and of the world, and is finding out that the world is complex and that his choices are gray rather than than black and white.

Health Care in America is about to change:

1)  In an amusing but not unforeseen turn of events, the residents of Kentucky are now very worried to be losing Medicare -- one of the most important changes proposed by the GOP -- something that doesn't seem to phase Trump very much.  Kentucky voted massively for Trump and is very dependent on Medicare.  So now Residents of Kentucky are about to find out (they voted 83:13 for Trump) that the GOP's platform has a direct impact on their lives.

2)  GOP is also working on a phase out of the ACA over the next 36 months.  Unbeknown to the GOP certain aspects relating to the state markets for healthcare will be immediately affected -- therefore the ACA is more than likely to die a premature death in 2017 with no replacement in sight.

3)  Finally, the Democrats will not get revenge in the mid term election; most marginal seats in 2018 are already Democrats while the GOP seats up for grabs are some of the safest in the country -- it would seem that the GOP will be in power at least until 2020.  Four years to effect massive change to the country.


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