Tuesday, November 29, 2016

The meaning of a new republican administation

There is no doubt now that the GOP's goal will be to demolish what is left of Obama's meager contribution to America's wellbeing -- his most ambitious achievement the ACA (aka Obamacare).  In a sense, the new Republican administration is confident that they will hold Congress and the White house for the next four years, and that within the next 100 days some rather aggressive changes will be implemented:

1)  Keep the good stuff from Obamacare and dump the stuff they don't like.  They like pre-existing conditions and that children can stay on their parent's insurance until they are 26.  Of course its unclear who will pay for all this -- pre-existing conditions were covered because of a larger insurance pool.

2)  Tax reform:  It is a certainty that massive corporate and personal tax reform will take place with the vast majority of tax reduction for the wealthy and corporation.  This will lead to a massive repatriation of offshore revenues, that will result in massive dividend (to the benefits of stockholders and pension funds).  This will lead to no additional investments

3)  Security:  This is a catch all and may include stuff that Trump wants -- such as eroding the first amendment and border walls -- re-introduction of private prisons and continuation of Obama's massive repatriation of illegals (2.9 million during Obama's term -- its hard to go faster since the problem are the court system that is already overwhelmed)

4) Reduction of regulation:  You can expect that consumer protection rules will be reduced, that the already small fangs of the EPA will be further eroded.  That permission to drill wherever and whenever they want will be granted.  Banking rules will be made easier -- some are good ideas others may lead to more problem in the future -- especially if certain disclosure rules are relaxed...  At any rate expect a bank bailout in the next 5/6 years.

What will get in the way of Congress and the White House?  Aside from the real world very little.  Trump will continue to call Apple and Carrier to keep 2,000 jobs in the US, which is not something a president should spent any time...

On other issues that will cause problems will be trade; that is one area where the WH and Congress do not agree.  The last thing the GOP wants is a curtailment of trade, and there the WH may find much more help from the Democrats that have been against NAFTA for years.

P.S.  Bad luck for me, wrote this on the 27th of November -- and saw today that Paul Ryan said exactly the same thing...


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