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Bond Prices



Forty trillion dollars is a lot of money! Even on planet earth its a lot of money.  The problem is that America is not the only one borrowing, moreover, more than three trillion dollars worth of maturing bonds have to be refinanced.  That's a lot of money.

The other factor that is important to understand is that America is not the only one borrowing, but it is the only one that is trying to kill its trade deficit.  What American policy makers fail to understand is that a trade deficit is basically a situation where you get stuff and you give sellers little pieces of paper that they keep in safes.  

About 40% of all new treasury bonds are purchased by foreign holders.   The two largest holders are the Japanese government and the Chinese government.   The latter is reducing its holding quickly because it needs liquidity.  The reality of China that most don't seem to understand is that it is quickly aging and about 25% of its economy is disappearing.   Real Estate is a dying business (I understand that the demolition business is booming).  Although the federal government is not heavily indebted, the states are.  The numbers are breathing.  The solution is to use dollar holderings (that are liquid) to meet your obligations.  

The Japanese have a similar problem, but also very different.   Japan is the most indebted country in the world with a debt to GDP of 220%.   Whereas the US treasury relies on foreigners for 40% of its government borrowing, in Japan its less than 3% (BTW its the same for China).  However, domestic lenders are "Full" of paper and have obligations.  The biggest holders of Japanese sovereign debt are pension funds – that have been paying out more than they take in for nearly a decade now.  The only way the pension funds will "divert" their investment dollars away from the "carry trade" is if the proposition is attractive enough. Hence, sovereign bonds have risen in price from nearly zero to more than 2.5%.   THe Japanese government is selling its holdings of US dollars (treasury bonds) to meet its daily obligations.

The reckoning for the US treasury is that at 5.56% the new debt is becoming very expensive, and will assume nearly 30% of government expenses.  More than the defense spendings.  Scott Bessent tried to reduce interest rates with an intervention, it lasted, according to some friends, less than two hours – billions spent for nothing.   That is the reality of America now.  They are not liked or admired, they are even hated, and the latest Trump move of asking some kind of strong support from European allies to retain NATO troops in their country is both stupid and insulting, because every one knows that he will kill NATO anyway.

All this will blow up before the midterm.   


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