An often asked question is, could the US dollar's hegemony be at an end? Could another method of exchange be used, and could commodities be priced in things other than dollars? The short answer is YES, the long answer is IT COULD take a long while.
The problem is that the dollarisation of the planet for trading has been in place for nearly five decades. The convergence of very specific factors (a) the American economy eclipsed the rest of the world in the 1950 and 1960s (gold was still an important benchmark then). (b) A large percentage of trade was directed to the United States, and (c) many currencies were not freely exchangeable or very liquid. The only real debt markets were the UK (the old standard of exchange) and the United States. In short it became "convenient" to price things in US dollars.
The first American President to weaponise the US dollar was Bush after the World Trade Center attack. People forget that once the American money to Ireland dried up peace was quickly achieved. Barack Obama did the same with the Russian oligarchs. The only joke is "You control their money". The problem is simple, once you start weaponising the US dollar it's a slippery slope. Trump I didn't do much about that but did not remove any of these limitations. Trump II was so pissed with the international court of justice that he forced Amex, Visa and Mastercard to "cancel the credit cards of all the participants and of their families". So far not a nail in the coffin, but other forces are at play.
The most recent war with Iran is not a good look. Many oil producers have begun to price their goods in currencies other than the US dollar, but its complicated. If Saudi Arabia sells oil in Chinese Yuan it needs the authorisation of the Chinese Government to sell these Yuan (Russia faced a similar problem a few years ago. The Euro could help, but there is little likelihood that the Euro will become a serious reserve currency. It's still too messy with individual nations.
What is true, is that whereas in the past, if you travelled with US dollars they were widely accepted everywhere in the world, this is no longer the case. This is a real shift.
CONCLUSION: About 75% of a trade is concluded in US dollars. It represents hundreds of billions annually. The problem of replacing the US dollar, is replacing it with what? It cannot be the Yen, or the Yuan, there it would have to be the Euro…That's the real nature of the problem. However, we could easily see a reduced dependence on the US dollar, but unless the US government imposes strict currency rules (unlikely because the US needs to borrow so much), the hegemony of the US dollar will remain.
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