I was for 25 years an analyst in a very successful fund manager. I was very lucky as was the fund. The owners of the fund had been around for a while, the family behind the fund have been investment managers for the better part of three centuries. They knew the value of people who work for them.
One of my closest friends at school took a very different path, and eventually became a member of Her Majesty's armed forces. Our lives never really intersected professionally on a formal basis, but I had almost quarterly meals with my old school chum. Over 30 years it adds up. The truth is that I paid for most of these meals, the reason was that I was employed in the City, and my friend, well, had limited official income. I didn't care! He was smart and well informed; a foil against whom I could gauge my world views.
To this day, we meet on a quarterly basis, granted that the conversation is now generally more personal (grandchildren mostly) and he has "retired" from the armed forces. He now works for a world renowned think tank. His income is substantial, not that it was really an issue to start with, my friend came from a wealthy family – me paying for the meals had more to do with the "professional" relationship.
Our last lunch was an eye opener, and 100% of what I am discussing today is public knowledge. For the past 18 months the heads of the European nations have been having quarterly meetings without aids or communication devices. The topic has been can the alliance survive (aka NATO) without the Americans?
The answer in short is YES, but changes have to take place now (that was a year ago). Everyone will have seen that change in the adoption of "computer software" that is not tied to the United States (Microsoft, Google, and Apple products). Both in hardware and software. The shift has already occurred; it is estimated that more than 90% of European governments' systems have now been "updated".
The second eye opener was the war in Ukraine. My friend told me that the impact and quick changing nature of drone technology is a massive change to the world order of defense. The truth is that the old adage that nothing is better at force projection than an aircraft carrier has been turned on its head, and the removal of the B1 bombers from the UK is "proof" that the US air force believes that it is incapable of protecting its first strike weapons from Iranian drones.
Suddenly, the 6th fleet is not the protection that everyone believes to be strong. The systematic destruction of American bases in the middle east is proof that the "protection element" of the American presence in the middle east not only does not exist but it's actually a bait. In addition, when it suits it, the Americans will stand by and let Israel attack you!
In short, the decision has already been taken by the European heads of state. Americans probably did not notice the lack of reaction when Trump declared that 100,000 troops would leave Europe. That gave pause to the Americans, for the Europeans (especially Greece and Germany) it is a sign that the Europeans not only expect the withdrawal but take the view that the departure of the Americans will be beneficial, especially since the Russians have become "frisky" in Poland and the Baltic states.
In a nutshell, the Europeans have already decided to "replace" the American umbrella. In addition, those who have purchased American defense systems have been told that the delivery of these systems was delayed "indefinitely" which in weapons talks means never! Anyway, many will have noticed the ineffectiveness of the Patriot batteries in protecting Israel and the GCC. Each Patriot costs about three million dollars, and they always launch two or three, against Iranian missiles that cost less than a hundred thousand dollars, or drones for a fraction of that amount. It is well known that America launched over 400 patriot missiles to protect their Jordan base – over a single night. The 400 Patriot accounted for nearly 15% of America's pre war (Iran) stock of Patriots – according to the US government and the manufacturer, the total number of Patriot that can be manufactured in a single month is around 60. So in the space of one night, the US army used nearly seven months of production.
That's why Europe is quickly shifting away from America, and don't kid yourself, manufacturing plants that were making machine tools and vehicles can "easily" be repurposed for other uses. What is truly shocking, is the absence of conversations between America and Europe when it comes to defense matters. Of course the US administration talks about defense procurement in terms of carriers, tanks and aircraft. The Europeans who have witnessed the "successes" of Ukraine against Russia have come to a different conclusion. Sure an F35 is an effective platform (as is a B1 bomber) but if it has to be parked 3,000 miles away it is far less effective. Especially since its three hundred million price tag will be facing various drones that cost a few thousand each. This is 1917 all over again, when the British and the French realized that their horse-drawn artillery was decimated by a pair of German aircraft with simple machine guns. Three hundred years of warfare strategy died that night!
So what's next? The easy answer is that Europe doesn't have aircraft carriers but does have an adequate Air Force. If it is reinforced with drone technology, both offensive and defensive, then the game changes. The Russians, that are Europe's real enemy have seen their tank stocks decimated, their aircraft fleet destroyed on the ground and even their artillery severely compromised. The lessons of the Ukraine conflict have been learned and absorbed. It is understood that after Ukraine the next target for Russia is Poland, so that Russia can reclaim its territorial integrity. Unlike America, Europe is not trying to police the world, but to protect itself from the "invasion tendencies" of its Russian neighbour.
The fascinating aspect of our conversation was the "matter of fact" way in which it was discussed, this was not a secret or a surprise, the Europeans are already working on the basic principle that the Americans will entirely withdraw from the continent within the next 18 months. Worse yet, the Pentagon is working on the false premise that Europe is concerned. It is not, it is systematically replacing the American systems with their own. The difference in terms of procurement is startling. As my friend said, Berlin and Paris don't fund a single system, they fund them all. The cost of each platform is so low, that there is no reason to choose nor is there a shortage of resources.
My friend mentioned a drone platform the German government has funded. The total cost for the entire system (derived from a system deployed in Ukraine) was less than fifty million Euros, for this, the German government got somewhere around 6,000 drones and more than one hundred launch platforms. These are simple battlefield drones. That system was "ordered" in March 2025, and was fully "delivered" this summer. Think about this, a brand new weapons system was developed, manufactured and delivered in 15 months. Again none of this is "secret" it was actually discussed in the German press for the past year. This system was mentioned as "an example" of how the German armed forces were reengineering their tasking away from the old infantry systems. In the article it was not the news it was ancillary to the news!
Sure an aircraft carrier and a B1 bomber is great, but it's not perfect either in the new warfare age. Think about this, that drone system was "announced" like something obvious. The real question is what else have the German, the French and the British done since the American umbrella has been shown to be brittle. We know that Germany increased its military budget by almost 50%. What system the Germans have built is unknown, except what my friend has said, with new complete systems costing less than fifty million, the Germans probably funded two dozen different systems. No need to choose.
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