This is not from me, but from a Canadian based, American political scientist called Tim Snyder, who a few months ago, at the Council of Foreign Affairs brought out this new "definition" of a superpower that does almost anything to destroy itself.
The story of Trump and his followers, carpetbaggers and wannabe dictators, but of another democracy that "gave up" now the context is different but some of the elements are surprisingly similar in the outcome.
The Treaty of Vesaille forced upon Germany and its population massive repayment obligations that were nearly impossible to achieve – which was largely the objective. It is important to note that Germany in the 1920s was simply the "center" of scientific research – just look at the Oppenheimer movie to understand the importance of the country to fundamental research. The first world war was not a "global war" in the same way as WWII was, conflicts were very regional, granted all over Europe, but battlefields were generally small, you just have to go to the Somme and see the vestiges of the foxholes that were built to realize that the size of the "front" was minuscule.
The story of Germany in the 1920 was the destruction of not only the democratic institutions, but also the deep suspicion about scientific endeavor. Despite this, Germany still achieved a great deal during the second world war, but the atrocities it committed were to scale. Between 1921 and 1927 the German democratic institutions were completely destroyed, as were most university based scientific research. If anyone sees relationships between ICE and Hitler's Brown Shirts, well you just have to look at the "Minister of War" Pet Hegseth to see the emergence of what can only be viewed as a "brutalist" nazi art rendition – don't kid yourself this is not by chance but by design.
The other important factor is the "debt" that was owned by the German government to the "Allies" after the first world war, in particular the French. You could say that the massive increase in US sovereign debt is playing a similar role, with interest expenses now being the single largest item of government spending.
So what does it mean for the United States?
The difficulty is in taking the analogy too far. The US still has amazing universities, but increasingly they are reserved for the Americans (getting a student visa to the US is now expensive and difficult), in addition the cost of an education in a top US university is prohibitive and rising at more than 10% per annum. Finally, the top universities are seeing their science budgets (usually from Federal and State governments) being cut dramatically. The implication is that "potential very bright foreign students" no longer consider US universities (especially in STEM subjects) because they know that top researchers are leaving – and they are checking Oxbridge, London University and several European universities, where they have emerged.
The fact that measles is now a thing in the US is a massive indictment of the American system, that the idea that the MMR vaccine will cause all kinds of development problems is so widely believed that in some states (AKA California, Florida) the level of MMR vaccines is less than 20%.
Again this is a random fact, but the age of the kleptocracy is alive and well in the US. When Supreme court justices give positive verdicts for people who have given them hundreds of thousands of dollars. or even the American President that pardoned, a well known drug trafficker tells you that the entirety of the legal system is for sale to the highest bidder. In that context, the rule of law (and of contracts) does not last long.
The final nail in the coffin is the US military that was for the past 80 years seen as the greatest deterrent. Now not so much, when US aircraft carriers have to park in the red sea to "attack" Iran because their protection systems are not up to the task, you have a problem. When the US Air Force moves its B1 bombers from the UK to the US, the game is over. Sure they can still cause a lot of harm and do some horrible things, and they have over and over. However, it remains a diminished force. In addition, the US is unable to physically invade Iran. It doesn't have the manpower to be effective. Joking aside, at least the German army knew how to do that!
The concept of Superpower Suicide is a complex issue where the superpower loses its way and faith, and is ready to elect, for the second time, a man that only has a marginal grasp of reality, or more to the point he invents his reality – That cannot be good, especially at a time when the political balance of power is shifting in the US, the old alliances are dying.
The question is, what about the next guy?
It almost doesn't matter, because the trend is already in place. Students have gone elsewhere, the immigration rules are not about to change. Americans love the idea of America for Americans (again Americans are far from the only ones to espouse such sentiments – in fact they are far more common than people believe). Finally, and this is something that people don't understand, 15% of US GNP is related to trade, and of that amount 80% is from Canada and Mexico. America is energy self-sufficient and can be largely autarkic.
Whatever happens it will be slow, but the pendulum has swung far to the "right" and is unlikely to move back left. All I am saying is that the signs of the end of the American empire are there for anyone to see, sure than can be some retraction, but America's long term trading partners (Mexico and Canada) understand that the old relationship is done, its over, a new paradigm is in place
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