Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Canadian House prices stabilize

After an epic 9 month rise in prices, things seem to be cooling a little up in the great white north.  Obviously the Federal government enacted new mortgage provision in May of this year, it was always anticipated that it would eventually impact price/demand.  Maybe this is the first sign.

The Teranet National Bank House Price Index was release this morning, the news for the country as a whole was that growth on a national basis has been slowing for several months -- in  July price rose by 1.5% (not annualized) and in August the number was 0.9%, so September 0% growth is a clear indication of slowing.

Obviously, with a country like Canada the local picture is somewhat different.  Halifax (-1.1%), Calgary (-0.8%), Quebec City (-0.4%) were balance by increases in Winnipeg, Victoria and Toronto.  Interestingly other data points (from StatsCan) show that mortgage borrowing growth has "tempered" to 7% (it was as high as 16% in 2007), and construction for housing is also dipping.

It is still much to early for the BoC to claim victory on the ridiculous Canadian housing market, because national income is rising in Canada (its still falling in the US) should growth in price be tempered for a year or two the problem (soft landing -- ha ha) would literally go away in most areas (BTW I don't believe this for one second).

We shall see.


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