Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Will thanksgiving be postponed for traders?

Capital market are going through a rough spot right now.  earlier this morning the Dow was down 120 points -- its only down 78 right now.  Europe continues to scare the crap out of everyone, and now the Feds have mandated 30 US financial institutions to conduct further stress test -- that assume rather cataclysmic breakdown:  Unemployment over 13%, European GDP 6.9% collapse.

The banks are not too keen since they don't know if that will set their minimum capital level.  Anyway, another difficult week for the market.  The German had a terrible bond auction this morning (nearly 40% of the issuance was withdrawn -- for lack of buyers).  Contagion is spreading, France, Belgium bond markets are now suffering too.

Rumors of a tighter core Europe is emerging with France and Germany (Maybe Benelux), but excluding just about everyone else.  Finally, China's PMI number this morning was terrible at 48 -- below 50 means contraction.  Suddenly the risk of hard landing is becoming more real for China (I have no idea how commentators who think that OECD governments are a bunch of dunce unable to find their asses with two hands give some much credit to the Chinese authorities... wonders never cease).

Anyway, I suspect that some no so junior traders will be at their desk Friday - foregoing the family turkey


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