Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Known unknowns! Iran flexes its muscles

Rumsfeld famous quote "for there are things we know, there are things we know we don't know and then there are things we don't know we don't know" (better known as: Shit happens!).  Still, we've know for some time now that things in Iran were heading on a collision course.  Stuxnet was clearly part of a "dirty covert war" no one knows who started it all -- but there are only a few place were such a sophisticated worm program could have been written (and the delivery system was amusing -- apparently via peer to peer sites! you know these sites were you download movies illegally!).  Then not so subtle was death; for a time the world's most dangerous profession was Iranian nuclear scientist -- several died from bullets, other via bombs and one apparently from gas attack!

No doubt this slowed down the Iranian's "peaceful" objective to gain nuclear technology, now buried in 20 different sites across the country.  Iran has been seething at this "cold war" with few weapons at its disposal (although rumors are that they've been arming the Taliban and other "anti-Western" freedom fighter (ok so they call them that, we call them terrorists -- its a matter of where you sit in the debate).  The stakes were just raised last week when the UK imposed an embargo on all oil products from Iran (BP is still a British company -- so the embargo stung). This morning Iran decided to "invade" the British Embassy and take hostages (anywhere between 6 and 8 people were abducted).  

Iran is not loved, first of all the rest of the Middle East hates their guts, Iran is not an Arab country its Persian, its dominant religion is Shi'a Muslim, not Sunni -- ok same branch, but tell that to the protestants and Catholics -- some rather impressive wars have been fought on that difference (BTW they are also divided, Sunnis are mostly in the South and are mostly Arab...).

So, the Brits are really pissed, the American never in love with Iran (at least not since 1979 -- that's when the Iranian monarchy was deposed -- puppet regime of the U.S. CIA), a good chunk of the 6th fleet "happens" to be around the corner (just outside the Syrian border and in the Persian gulf).  Israel is really getting nervous (there are apparently 10,000 missiles aimed at Israel), the rest of the gulf would really like a regime change in Iran (see above), but will not actively participate (but will not get in the way either).  Russia's just had as much fun as it can stand from Iran.  Don't forget that it was Iran that was supporting the Chechen movement (and Putin just got the president's job back).  

No, the stars are not in a very good position for a peaceful resolution.  BTW if "war" is declared (really antediluvian concept), or an border accent occurs (more than likely) you can bet that oil prices will shoot up dramatically.  Finally, a note on the 6th fleet thing; that was made public last week, and everyone assumed that this was a direct consequence of the recent events in Syria -- no one made a move to change that narrative, although it made zero sense for America to get involved in that fight, but Syria is the direct path to Iran (Iran is basically just behind Syria.

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