That's the Reuter's headline this morning. China is finding the going tough! Finally, sales in Europe are starting to falter. Reported elsewhere, Apple has reduce component orders by nearly 20% -- still very much a rumor, but it remains that a global recession seems to be on the cards.
Short term I see the USD rising in value, as investors seek the safety of the US debt and equity market (I could be wrong), at least until the 23rd of November -- when the supercommittee on the deficit reveals that they could not agree on a USD1.2 trillion cut in expenses (that over 10 years).
As I like to repeat Canada is a second derivative country, we should see some weakness in the price of some of our export goods. Oil price (if there is a global recession) should drop, as should copper prices ("the" bell weather of global growth). It goes without saying that everything else will be affected too. Of course this is a worse care scenario, italy and Greece could wake up and decided that "some" real austerity (and tax collection) is a good idea... but don't count on it. ECRI says that a recession is "baked in". Interesting time
The big question after that is: Where do investors put their money after that?
Other interesting headlines:
Half of all mortgages in the US are underwater
Mortgage delinquency is rising again
Las Vegas saw a 9% drop in home price in 2011, and expects another 100,000 home to be foreclosed on. Total so far 1/5 of the Vegas entire housing stock has been foreclosed.
FT: Thinking the unthinkable -- Greece on the way out?
Gold nearing $1,800 price point
German confidence level dropping (as are exports)
Short term I see the USD rising in value, as investors seek the safety of the US debt and equity market (I could be wrong), at least until the 23rd of November -- when the supercommittee on the deficit reveals that they could not agree on a USD1.2 trillion cut in expenses (that over 10 years).
As I like to repeat Canada is a second derivative country, we should see some weakness in the price of some of our export goods. Oil price (if there is a global recession) should drop, as should copper prices ("the" bell weather of global growth). It goes without saying that everything else will be affected too. Of course this is a worse care scenario, italy and Greece could wake up and decided that "some" real austerity (and tax collection) is a good idea... but don't count on it. ECRI says that a recession is "baked in". Interesting time
The big question after that is: Where do investors put their money after that?
Other interesting headlines:
Half of all mortgages in the US are underwater
Mortgage delinquency is rising again
Las Vegas saw a 9% drop in home price in 2011, and expects another 100,000 home to be foreclosed on. Total so far 1/5 of the Vegas entire housing stock has been foreclosed.
FT: Thinking the unthinkable -- Greece on the way out?
Gold nearing $1,800 price point
German confidence level dropping (as are exports)
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