We are in May, and by all accounts, the Ukraine war should be warming up now that the ground is solid again, this made me think, over the past few days about the end game here. Ukraine has/had a population of about 60 million to Russia's 130 million. I was looking at my bookshelf and there are a number of history books and one book discussed the 100-year war -- which was not a 100-year war, but 100 years "of wars" between France and England.
The relevance here is sustainability and objectives;
For Russia, or at least Putin this is not about Ukraine but about lies beyond Ukraine; Poland, and Hungary to the West and Romania to the South. So, the Polish and spending a lot of money on their military and are very generous towards the Ukrainians with substantial military support. This war for Russia/Putin is about Russia reaching the natural protective boundaries. Ukraine is not and has never been a target it's on the way to the target. As far as Russia is concerned Ukraine could be left empty and fallow and it would be fine with them.
For Ukraine, this is a war of survival. The odds of success are poor; a smaller population entirely dependent on the generosity of its partners who have their own problems; Europe is only now waking up to a belligerent Russia and is ill-prepared. Ukraine has been facing challenges for the past decade, like Russia it suffers from a low and declining birthrate, and now with the war, things are getting worse. Whatever happens with this war, it is more than likely that a Ukrainian population collapse is already in the cards.
Logistics: The five largest suppliers of weapons to Ukraine have been the USA, Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland, and Canada -- with the US accounting for more than half of the total, and if Canada is included 2/3 of all weapons have come from North America. Jointly, the rest of the EU provided about as much military support as did Canada. France, Europe second largest military force, accounted for less than 0.6% of the total. Germany and Poland are the only two EU members that have been strong supporters of Ukraine with nearly US$ 8 billion in military assistance.
Another 100-year war: If we think of the Ukraine conflict in the greater scope of Russia's territorial requirements this war started in 2008 with the invasion of Georgia, when the West failed to react. The US could not because they needed Russia's logistical support for their wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Putin and his allies saw that as a positive signal and over the next 15 years invaded another six territories including parts of Ukraine, and again the world did nothing. The single largest change is that the US vacated the middle east in general and gave up on Iraq and Afganistan.
At first, everyone assumed that the Ukraine war would be over in weeks if not days. Reports were that military commanders brought their dress uniform onto combat, and yet the world watch on as Russians demonstrated over and over their incompetence. Everyone was surprised by Russia's complete inability to defeat the Ukraine armed forces. The failures were at every level, the world watch in disbelief as Ukraine forced kicked the Russians' ass strategically, and the Russian general failed to provide basic logistical support (food and fuel). On that basis, the world started to help (and the Russians did their bit too by abandoning equipment where it stood).
Not even a 3-year war: Russia has a huge problem, there are about 8 million men of the right age to participate in Putin's war of expansion, and reports are that over the past few years, nearly 1 million young Russian men have left the country. Nearly 1 million have already been conscripted but it's not like the other 6 or 7 million are all available, some are not eligible (profession, health issues). However, Putin's Russia is finding the same outcome that it has imposed on Ukraine with plummeting birth rates across the entire country. One way or the other this part of the conflict will be over in 18 months on the outside. Ukrainians that could have left, those remaining will be killed by the Russians so that can then move to attack its real targets to the South and West.
Where our assumption could be wrong: For years Russian military leaders have been selling the country's military ware to wars across the world, it is unclear how many serviceable tanks and tracked vehicles remain, how much serviceable ammunitions remain, and how many vehicles are even repairable. This is not inconsequential, when WW2 started the US troops were issued with weapons, and ammunition that had been left over from WW1, had been stored properly. To a large extent, what the US has been supplying to the Ukrainians are older weapons that the US Military would have to eventually decommission --instead, they got used up.
A very old acquaintance from my days in Asia told me years ago (late 1990) that the only Russian weapons and ammunitions that remained in Ukraine (Russian soldiers abandoned their Ukrainian bases and "walked" home and left all their weapons in 1989) were in such poor condition, that it was too expensive to scrap, the ammunition had rotted in damp and improperly maintained facilities. That was nearly a quarter of a century ago, and it is well documented that the Russian generals have continued selling their wares to the highest bidders. Although there are "inventories" of ammunition the reality in theater is that the Russian troops are running out of mortar shells. The issue for Russia is that it may have T-45 tanks (from the 1950s) but they may not have any viable ammunition to go with it!
Where next: Poland is the next obvious target for Russia. Since 2010, the Polish have been investing heavily in their arm forces, and their strong participation in the Ukraine war is simply using the Ukrainian forces as a proxy to soften the Russians. Everyone is amazed by the poor training, poor security, and even worse the state of the Russian equipment that was seized by the Ukrainians. What is now evident is that against a modern well equipped military force the Russians will suffer massive attrition; rumors are that against Ukraine forces attrition rates of 10:1, but against a modern army such as the Polish, the attrition rate could be as high as 1,000:1 -- which means that war theater nuclear options would be contemplated by Putin.
That's what is scaring everyone. That small tactical nuclear weapon will be used in Poland, Hungary, or Romania. Russia can deal with a 10:0 casualty rate but at a 1,000:1 even that's too much for Russia. Nuclear weapons in Ukraine don't work because Russians still need to cross the territory. I know it sounds cold, it is very cold, and war is not a funny or easy thing, but these are the reality of the Russian conflict. So far it has been assumed that Russia's military can be largely worn down by a Ukraine conflict, the assumption is that Russia has tons of tanks and ammunition available, but that could be wrong.
No one knows
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