Monday, September 12, 2011

Funny but sad comment

The end game is afoot for Greece, the first member of the EU looking at default and maybe/probably exit from the Euro.  The austerity package has been a disaster for Greeks at large.  The promised revenues (and asset sales) have not occurred and the budget deficit is not actually shrinking (as a proportion of GDP) but rising as the country's economy collapse from absolute reduction in government expenses -- that's what happens when the government accounts for 50% of GDP (I know, I know the gov't produces nothing -- but indulge me here).  

Germans who've been trough the German unification process (and cost) are not too keen on doing this again, especially since they view the Greeks as layabouts (not making a value judgement here -- just reading the mood). 

So the great European experiment has come to a cross road and some hard choices have to be made soon (they could fudge it and delay until 2013 -- but the political landscape may have changed by then -- imagine nationalist parties taking over government in several North European countries).  In a nutshell Europe has two choices: 

(a) Save the Euro and give up national fiscal independence
(b) Kill the Euro and retain national fiscal independence.

Of course this being Europe, there's always "door #3" where the worse possible outcome emerges; the Euro dies as does fiscal independence.

Again no real Canadian news, the CAD is now within .002% of parity with the USD and did dip briefly early AM, no real Canadian news today (actually nothing interesting till Wednesday)



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