Friday, September 9, 2011

Rumors about Greece

Well the solids are hitting the fan it seems, rumors are that Greece will give up the ghost this weekend and will declare default.  Honestly, they are way behind their targets (not that they really had any chance of meeting those targets), CDS are 400 bps wider this morning.  That screams default.

Collateral damage:  SocGen is trading 8% lower this morning -- it is rumored to be heavily exposed (and under capitalized) to Greek debt...

Obviously the big question is why this weekend:  The answer is why not!  It sounds flippant (that's my point) there is absolutely no catalyst this weekend that was not already present last weekend or two months ago.  This is Europe worse kept secret -- Greek austerity is not working, it never worked because the building blocks are just not present.  

Funny research report earlier this week by UBS that stated that Greece cannot leave the Euro, because, wait for it, there are no mechanism for leaving the Euro... I mean how stupid do you have to be (as an analyst) to suggest that the reason something will not happen because there's no rules for this to happen, morons I tell you real morons [not I will not link that research too stupid and lame to give this guy publicity].

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