Policymakers have busy days, where consultations of those affected by a change in policy are given a short time to make their case as to why a specific policy change is a good or a bad idea. Good or bad policy, they receive the same treatment, policymakers will receive virtually the same public outcry -- because in parliamentary hearings, you only hear from those who complain, who will be negatively affected by a change in policy.
I've mentioned that in farming there are several factors; first, you have to find a market where demand will justify the effort, for most farmers, the demand segment has been taken care of by forces outside the farming community (aka wholesalers and supermarkets). In turn, the wholesalers (which represent the bulk of the demand for farmer's products) see how the market evolves. Changes take multiple years, just look at the shift in the type of potatoes consumed in the UK, what was favoured in 1970 hardly exists now, and I cannot think of a more "staple" vegetable. In the 1990, it was all about lean meats, so the cattle had to go to slaughter earlier and be very lean (the two are not mutually exclusive), and for the past decade, there has been a shift back to meat with higher fat content. All these changes in demand were accommodated by farmers, but it took years. None of these changes were driven by the farmers, it was demand-driven.
The Welsh government, has decided to introduce SFS (Sustainable Farming Scheme) the laudable idea is that farmers would be rewarded for planting somehow "sustainable" crops. You know what is a sustainable crop for a farmer: A crop he can sell! That's it.
Unless the Welsh government decides to act as a 100% intermediary and buys the entire crop, farmers will resist. Introducing new varieties of crops is complicated, we should know, we do it all the time, you would think we would be pro SFS, but we work in a subset of the industrial farming sector. Our market is very different than what the average farmer faces because we sell to restaurants and hotels who understand the pitfalls and benefits of new varieties (e.g. our new very fragile grape tomatoes).
Moreover, it takes a huge amount of planning. Soil has to be optimized for every crop, and the shift from one type of vegetable also means that soil composition has to be altered, I'm exaggerating a little bit. Farmers will decide two or three years ahead how and if they want to modify crops. Our farm is planting wheat this year, but we are only doing this because we have spare land, that has, by coincidence, the right soil composition, and the futures prices were three times what they were two years ago. We locked in 100% of our costs and 50% of our projected profits. For the crop, we will plant in a few weeks. This is incredibly unusual. This is not planning.
Planning is what our biologist and ecologist do, where they will do a soil analysis, add different levels of soil nutrients, grow the test plant, and measure the soil depletion at the end of the season. That alone takes at least a growing season -- which is another issue, our biologist will also test and verify how the new variety deals with pests. All these thing occur before we plant "industrial sized" quantities, we will also test with our consumers (restaurants) new variety and see what kind of demand we have.
This is why what the Welsh are considering is idiotic, they are targeting the wrong group. if you want farmers to change their crops you have to convince their consumers, anything else will lead to the bankruptcy of these local farmers, and increased imports of foodstuff that consumers want to buy.
I mean it sounds obvious, no?
Note: My point is that farmers' planting decisions will be based on what the market wants because its the market that buys their products. if they produce goods that the market doesn't want they they will go bust. No government stick or carrot can change that
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