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The three wars shaping the word in 2024

Three are at any one time several conflicts, but three represent a changing global order.  Some of the stuff, I write is deeply unpopular but remains a reality.  Maybe I am wrong but, right now, evidence supports my views.

Ukraine:  Has proven that the once mighty Russian army is a shadow of its former self.  It has been known for years that the vast majority of the Russian military budget has been stolen and taken by either the defence minister or his friends.  The CIA has estimated that over the past decade, nearly 2/3rds of the military budget has been stolen.  When early in the war Ukraine forces seized a massive amount of Russian gear, foreign observers reported that the equipment was in desperate need of maintenance (as idiotic as oil changes) which had not been done for years.  the Ukrainians spent millions and months repairing the Russian equipment.  The question no one asks is what happened to Russia's nuclear arsenal?  The Russian bear that has frightened generations is no more.  

Houthis:  Have proven to be a continuing low-grade pain in the ass.  Demonstrating that local conflicts can have global implications.  The Houthis with generally inexpensive weapons have reduced the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping traffic by nearly 50% in five months of activity.  Proof that an insignificant player can damage the world's fragile shipping ecosystem.   

Gaza: There has been a deep attachment towards Israel over the past 70 years, and over the past 20 or so, we have forgiven the Israeli actions that looked surprisingly like what the nazi implemented in the late 1930s against German Jews.  The world ignored Gaza for decades but suddenly woke up to the economic and social disaster of the place.  What is more telling is that Israel has also woken up, public opinion, left or right is almost identical.  Exterminating Gaza's population is the only solution.  When Hamas attacked an Israeli music festival and either killed or took as hostage more than 1,000 participants, Israelis united, in their views; Enough! This is why at the end of February 2024 we are finding ourselves in a situation where the entire world wants negotiations, yet Israel relentlessly attacking to eliminate them all.  This too will fundamentally alter the relationship between the West and Israel, but as an Israeli friend recently said, we all agree there is no possibility of peace, it's them or us, we picked us.

These three wars are reshaping the global order.  America has already left the Middle East.  Russia is not nearly as powerful as it was, and local conflicts can easily alter the global trading order.  Both the Russian and the Houthi conflict show the limits to modern warfare,.  Small players can have an outsized impact on the world.  

Note:  Before the comments start, please remember this is not a question of picking a side, but of observing the reality on the ground.  You may believe that what Israel is doing is a genocide but question your motives.  You've only cared about Gaza for three months, before that you could probably not even point it out on a map.  More importantly, you probably didn't care either!  The Gaza tragedy has been ongoing for 40 years.

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