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The Wall Street & Trump's electoral base

The Wall Street Journal did what the media was unable to do immediately after the primaries, and looked at the demographic of the Republican voters.  It was fascinating, it was almost like two different parties.  Those who supported Trump thought that (1) He had won in 2020, (2) that the court stuff was all political, (3) that he did nothing wrong on January 6th, (4) that he was willing to break the law to get things done (e.g. dictator).  (5) they cared little for foreign policy, (6) before Trump they had not participated in the electoral process.

Those who voted for the other candidates were (1) wealthier, (2) better educated, (3) believe that Biden won, (4) that some of the court cases were political, but not all, (5) he did something bad on January 6th.

In the 2020 election, 9% of the Republicans did not vote for Trump they abstained, while 5% of Democrats abstained, 30% of the electoral is now independent, and in 2020 they sided 60/40 with Biden.  Investigation of the two primaries shows now that the number of Republicans who will not vote at all in the 2024 election if Trump is the nominee has risen from 9% to 19% in 2024.  Again these are demographic analyses, on large numbers, they are surprisingly accurate.  

I mentioned the independents, in 2020 they voted 60/40 for the Democrats, analysis of voter intentions seems to indicate that this division has intensified and could be as high as 80/20 now.

Politico wrote recently, that Trump and several other Republican candidates have worked hard it seems to appeal to the more extreme members of the party, turning away the more mainstream voters.  The reason Trump wants his last opponent gone is to be able to shift to the middle and regain the "lost souls of the party". 

Over the past few weeks, the Republican echo chamber did the unthinkable and decided to attack Ms, Swift.  She is a plant of the CIA, and the White House and the NFL have rigged the game so that Chief her boyfriend's team wins the Superbowl (oh, and he's not really her boyfriend because she is gay!).  All this because they are afraid she will support Biden.  Ms Swift supports women's rights, abortion and LGBTQ rights, Yeah she's not a likely Republican voter.  First, how stupid do you have to attack Ms Swift and her legion of admirers?  Second her support for the Democratic candidate against Marsh Blackburn lost and lost badly.

No Ms. Swift, will certainly vote for Biden that's a given.  But to pick that kind of fight is a good representation of what Trump's Republican party is all about, its grievance politics, and the crazy lunatic conspiracy-minded fringe.

This further demonstrates the Republicans's real problem, they are stuck in a mad world of extremism and an intense, almost insane partisan echo chamber.  This last congress was the most unproductive, ever.  They even recognized publicly that they torpedoed their own legislation because it could somehow help Biden, proof if any was needed that policy doesn't matter just grievances! 

Although the Conservative Party here has its own problem, it has not reached the nihilism that the Republicans have in the United States.  That is somewhat reassuring, although stupidity is not a characteristic unique to American politicians.

Note: I got a question, that based on what I wrote, Trump should lag Biden in the poll numbers, but Trump is ahead.  This question is interesting because it doesn't take into consideration how Polls are run versus how a demographic analysis is done.  Polling questions are made to get a quick reply to a few very basic questions, that assume that the person being interviewed may not answer truthfully, and the numbers are always based on specific predictors:  Are you for the death penalty, anti-abortion, pro-gay etc etc.  They don't ask the question: They assume that if you are a Republican you will vote for Trump, there is no room in their survey because it would further increase the level of uncertainty.  Democrats won the popular vote in both 2020 and 2022 by wide margins, far higher than what pollsters predicted, because of methodology, pollsters cannot ask the right question, it would undermine their objective in a two-horse race.

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