So to the absolute surprise of no one, the Conservative party lost another byelection. As they say, the chickens have come home to roost, and no statement can change the fact that they have been entirely responsible for the country's poor economic prospects.
One of our guests last night, an American, who lives in the district where George Santos', probably the most spectacular case of outright lying even seen in US politics, seat was the subject of a byelection. The winner was the ex-incumbent Democrats, who won by 55/45. In 2022 Santos had won by a 56/43 margin. It is easy to ascribe more meaning to a byelection, but both parties invested heavily, and the Republicans lost, because the facts are with the Democrats, the US economy is doing very well, unemployment is low, the participation rate is high and inflation falling quickly, partly because the dollar is strong. The facts are there for all to see.
The same reasoning applies to the UK. The election will occur this year, the only question is when. If I was the Prime Minister, and still enjoy the job, I would delay as long as possible, because unless Labour does something really crazy (not impossible) the odds are that the next government will be Labour, with a massive majority.
Unfortunately, Labour will have to live with the Tories' idiotic (in)actions. The UK population has been static for five years, but demographics have continued to evolve. Over the past decade, the percentage of those over 65 grew from 16% to 19% of the population. This has all kinds of implications from education and healthcare to the composition of the labour force. A Labour government will have to deal with several issues, as the first real post-Brexit government. The most glaring will be dealing with public service unions (railways even if privatized), NHS, education, but also immigration and getting a trade deal out of the Americans before it's too late. Each one is a massive challenge. It will be interesting to see how the new Prime Minister deals with all this.
On a more local note, and because Jennifer was on holiday, I interviewed a few potential pickers. My wife and I did 95% of all farm hiring, so we are familiar with the process. A young man answered our ad for pickers, the ad was specific that the job was part-time, from 6 till 11, 5 days a week (20 hours). That's the only positions we are currently looking to fill. He arrived late, about half an hour, unshaved and smelling like a brewery and had clearly slept in the clothing he was wearing, and started the conversation by stating that he would not do a foreigner's job and that he knew the gov'na (aka the boss/owner...me!). The interview lasted about 10 minutes and then he left. He behaved as if he was doing me/us a favour that he had plenty of offers. I don't know, or care if it's true, he didn't make the final list. We are seeing fewer job seekers, despite our high pay, substantially above minimum wages. This is one of the many reasons we are automating so many processes.
One of Jennifer's main long-term goals is to find ways to increase labour productivity. It is hard on a farm, the low-hanging fruits have already been deployed, and economies of scale have helped greatly. The 22 high tunnels which means that even in a polyculture environment we are doing very well.
Currently, wholesalers account for about 70% of cattle hanging weight sales, the rest is sold to affiliate companies. In the vegetable segment, the proportion is higher, 80% of vegetables are sold to our wholesalers, and the balance (discoloured and shape) are sold to affiliates. In fruits, the sale to wholesalers is lower, at around 65%, bruising is a bigger issue in this segment. In fact, in 2024 we have begun planting certain fruits and vegetables specifically for our affiliate businesses. We both have the scale now that this is a worthwhile direction. Again we focus on the higher end of the scale with organic preserves and jams but also with transforming vegetables. 2024 is the first year where we produce for our affiliates, in the past they were side business to our wholesaler business. We have contracted production with our wholesalers, that's why we added high tunnels, first because our wholesalers are asking and contracting for increased production, but also to meet the demand of our affiliates which transforms our produce, and allows us to retain more of the value added in the food industry.
We have not decided what we are going to do about the pigs, we will never have the scale to be a worthwhile source of pork for our wholesalers, but our production will still be substantial. Our forewoman told us that we should expect processing anywhere between 30 and 50 pigs per annum, which is not a lot. Again, we are looking at transformation rather than the wholesale market. We shall see.
Note: In fruits that bruise we have to exclude the small heirloom tomato which we produce exclusively for high-end restaurants. Every single fruit we produce is shipped, even if deformed, discoloured or bruised they want them.
Comments