Farmer Diaries

First, I didn't watch the show!   It was 3 in the morning here, but I did see the highlights.   Three things to remember (1) The bar for Biden was low, (2) Trump lies all the time, and (3) Well that is really the choice America has. Biden's only had to prove that he was alive and well, and he failed the second part of that.   He sounded confused and not entirely there.   This was not a good performance where the expectations were already low.   Trump either has no understanding of facts or just doesn't care (I suspect the latter).   The only topic he is really interested in discussing was the border.   Finally, these two men are the options that America has for the next president. Democrats are always quick in dismissing their candidates, while the GOP cannot rid itself of Trump if it wanted.  However, last night was more of a Biden fail than a Trump win.   In 90 minutes, Biden has proven every single weakness with his candidacy.    What a choice! P.S.   BTW being President

 I was watching a news broadcast a few days ago, and it showed Putin with the President/god/crazy guy Kim Jong Un from North Korea driving around in a new limousine that Putin had offered him.   A few things didn't make sense, first why in North Korea?  Strategically Russia is an unimportant place, plus he would be meddling with the Korea/China think.  Also a Russian car...really! A few days ago, I heard that Putin was offering arms to North Korea, considering how well the Russian equipment was doing in Ukraine (not very well) I thought it was strange, then Kim Jong Un said that North Korea was at war with the United States because of Ukraine.   That made even less sense! Now, two players are pissed with Russia; The Chinese really don't appreciate his meddling in a delicate situation in Korea/China relations -- China has already told Russia to go a dn pound sand on a new oil pipeline, as China has more than enough from other sources.  The other group he has pissed off are the S

 Looking at DJT price last week, my first thought was that the stock could go one of two ways, break the $23 floor that was set in April or rise to around $30-35.  This had nothing to do with the underlying value of the stock, the stock right now is an expensive option.   Right now the company's business has no value, it generates losses and revenues are down in the last quarter.   However, the company is spending a lot of money ($100 million) on some kind of secret project.   At this rate, the entire amount of free cash will be gone by the end of the year.    Chart followers who care about this stuff, know there's a hard floor on the stock of $22.85, volume over the past three weeks has fallen as the short positions are liquidated (covered or otherwise).  The bottom line is, that low volume does present an opportunity for chart follows (they have all kinds of strategies...).   So Monday the stock price rose by about 20%, with 10x the volume of last week.    The only announceme

 I laughed so hard when I saw that.   Instant comment.   If a gay or lesbian met a Palestinian they would linch them! Islamic's society view on homosexuality is rather clear...more or less the same as America in the early parts of the 20th century.   Prison and hospitalization. How can the LGBTQ+ movement support a nation that would imprison them on sight for their sexuality?  I get it, it's trendy to be anti-Jew.  Still supporting a regime that would have you imprisoned is a bit rich, and shows how shallow most people's understanding is of the crisis in the Middle East. NOTE:   This is not meant to support Israel or its action.   It is just a constattion.

I've been enjoying the heat and the sunshine in a southern town called Charlotte.   Considering how old it is (1768) I was unprepared for what the city is now large (hot too, almost 36c this afternoon), and very modern.   This trip is entirely the fault of our daughter, she wrote her Final's thesis on our farming activities.  Discussing how we moved up the value chain at a commercial scale.   The use of greenhouses (less relevant in the US) and of year-round production.   The invitation came because she had been invited to speak to an agricultural college seminar on farming, and I was the case study. All this has nothing to do with what I am writing about, it's just a context.   The vast majority of participants were wealthy landowners from the Southeast of the United States, a group as conservative as the bunch of farmers I meet at our local pub one Thursday a month. I was mentioning that these men (yes I know, what can I tell you, they are mostly men) who had voted their

 First, a bit of paint will not harm anyone.  These climate activities are going to learn two things in the next few days:  (1) Trespassing at an airport is a felony almost anywhere in the world.  That means criminal prosecution.   (2) removing paint from an aircraft is expensive.   So these climate activists are about to find out the reach of the British criminal system and it will not be pleasant, the UK has very strict laws about that, I would be surprised if cleaning the aircraft of all the paint will cost less than $100,000.     I am sure that when they planned (premeditation) this little show they had a very valid logic to doing this.  Tonight, they are probably realizing the depth of their troubles.   I understand that in the UK it's a minimum one-year jail sentence.    Also, good luck travelling with a criminal trespass charge against you.  I am relatively certain that the airline industry will slap them with no-fly status. Update;  It seems that what they threw on the airc

Everything in China can be explained by demography.   China's biggest problem is that the world in which it sells, and sells very successfully is also changing.  America and Europe face the same demographic challenges that China faces. What it means is that an ageing population consumes less and invests more, then it stops investing, producing and consuming.   Aging is the great equalizer.   Americans are aging as are Europeans so their respective economies are slowing, hence China's export market is shrinking. The pressures are not only with the clients but also internally.  China's population is no longer growing, but it is aging.   When you are 60 in China you start to look at your savings, and a surprisingly large percentage of the middle class savings are in real estate.  75% of all savings are real estate and 95% of this real estate produces no income. In 2019, in a town unknown to most foreigners the government demolished 15 high-rise towers that had been abandoned f

 I am preparing a kind of family tree for our children so that they know where they came from.  In my family I am the only survivor, although my brother and sister died recently they were both in their seventies (a story I told already).    It was a fun process, but it provided more than that.  First, I married relatively young I was 26 when I married and nearly 30 when our first child was born.   I was looking at my ancestors.  On my mother's side, she had 6 siblings, Four died before the age of 30, two in war, and two from illnesses.  Only she and a single sister survived.   The two boys had a child each but they died in WWII, and the other sister died as an infant.   what is interesting is that every one of my mother's siblings had children in their early 20s.   I know that my mom was hardly 20 when my brother was born.    What is remarkable is that among our friends, we are the only ones to have four children.   There is only 7 years between the eldest and the youngest.  Th

 Already half of 2024 is done, as June 30th is right over the horizon.   The farm's performance for the first half of the year is about 15% of 2023, the slow erosion is entirely due to the introduction in 2023 of more greenhouses.   At 22 today, we are full up and are not planning to add anything more.    We are now fully out of the Covid crisis, with virtually all systems back to the pre-crisis level regarding demand.   We are less exposed than many because we have begun restricting growth.  We have achieved the balance we sought a few years ago.   Garden waste that was threatening our biodigesters had been resolved by our pigs and goats, although the pigs are far bigger consumers of garden waste.  It also helps balance their diet, considering they inhabit forested areas.    In May, one of our biodigesters was offline for major maintenance.  There were some unexpected maintenance expenses in that segment.    Overall, the farm is doing very well, it is the right size for the staffi

 The Israeli Prime minister announced that the embargo on US-made weapons had been lifted and that an agreement with Antony Blinken had been reached.   Obviously to demonstrate that he is in charge and has the backing of the White House. The White House reply:  "We have no idea what he's talking about, nothing has changed" 

 Trump actually said these very words two days ago.   This is not only widely reported it's on tape too. After Trump's attempt to sell the election to the oil lobby, Trump is now threatening CEO, that if they don't support him, their board should fire them!   It is evident that the oil lobby had a far more clean-cut strategy giving Trump a billion and watch all the pro-oil legislation being passed.   Some were keen enough to start drafting... Really, nothing more to add

Well the slow decline of DJT (Nasdaq) seems to have begun for real, every day the price drops a bit more.   There is no good reason to buy or to sell the stock, there will be no news until the end of July when DJT releases its first-half results.   It is entirely possible (although unlikely) that the company's performance will improve.   Either because users feel that it is a better (or safer) platform.  Although rumours are that the idea was always to sell user data to interested third parties, so far the numbers are too small to be worth the money.  Or that there is really something behind the $100 million they have spent on a secret project (Media company???).    DJT has a small problem, they will soon run out of cash.  They are burning it rather quickly since they made a loss of $3000 million in the first quarter.  Some of it is a book entry, but it is still real.   At their current burn rate, the company will be out of cash by the end of the year (December). DJT expensive mana

The Hurricane season has started (June 1).  Storms are making their way now, but some small ones have already made their presence felt, and there already has been widespread flooding, in the more vulnerable low-lying areas.     Floridians are aggressively trying to find the next buyer for their property, but sales are falling through, because buyers cannot get insurance coverage.   There is no elegant outcome in this scenario.   Some housing in Florida should never have been built.   Eventually, as owners are unable to sell they will remain in their homes until flooding occurs and they will simply move out and never return.   Abandoned homes will be the outcome, which will reduce the value of homes in the area until only a few homes remain. There is no elegant exit here.  

Real estate prices in China are "beginning to fall" You can be sure that the disappointing data has been out there for a long time, but the pressure is just too great and they can no longer hide the price drops for new and old housing stock.   The reality is that housing for Chinese people has never been a source of income, it's a savings account.   Once you are retired you use your savings, and so Chinese "investors" have begun the process of using their savings to meet their daily monetary requirements.   In the OECD investment in real estate IS an investment with target returns.   In China, real estate is a non-income-generating asset. Urbanization and a broken local government financial system made the housing market the hottest asset class in China for the past 20 years.   It is also important to note that few attractive savings instruments exist in China.  Policy actors saw the housing boom as a double economic push; it provided local governments with addi

 In the 1992 general election, John Major's first (after the ousting of Margaret Thatcher) was the leader of the conservative government. All the pundits and the poll showed that the Conservatives were on the ropes and those who remember the times will remember the surprise by almost everyone about the Conservative win.    At the time, there was a review of the changing dynamics of British society, but the head of Statistics at Queen's College made the following comments: "When only 36% of those polled answered the questions, it is hard to determine how the non-respondents will vote, especially when 76% of the eligible voters participated". That was then, 36% of those contacted responded to the questions.  looking at the polling date now in 2024 the percentage of responders has dropped somewhat, the latest response rate is around 4%.   If Ipso or so other company contact 100 Brit, only 4 will respond.   It is hard to see on that basis how people will vote.  Also, thes

Good old Nigel is now proclaiming his intention to run as PM in 2029.   Good for him, I wish him luck with that.  The bottom line is that in Nigel's small brain, the Conservative Party is already dead, and Reform will take over.   Maybe but never underestimate voters' ultimate decision when they are in the polling station.   Of course, the Conservative Party is entirely at fault for the Brexit fiasco.   That Cameron still has a voice in the party tells you how desperate the party has become.  However, confusing long-time supporters of the Party with an electorate adrift forever is really to misunderstand how people behave.    Nigel is looking for votes across the nation, he will go to Wales and Ireland and also Scotland to sell his brand, and the new "real" conservative party.   However, and this is the important bit, in a country those who have the gold rule, and today neither Scotland nor Wales are net providers to the union.   The hard cold and mean truth is that b

The short answer is no!   The punishment was to be found guilty.   Part of the problem with white-collar crime is that it often is "victimless" not that there is no crime but no individual person was physically harmed.   The Madoff case was the exception, where people could be identified as being harmed, but Madoff's real crime was to have fooled the entire establishment for years.   His fund had been set up from day one to be fraudulent.   Those who investigated (e.g. Marcopolis) were even prosecuted by the state for implying things about "one of them". Trump's case is far more idiotic, he paid off a pornstar who he "encouraged" to sleep with him.  No one shines in that story, The pornstar for asking money not to tell an ancient story, her lawyer looking for his cut, Trump for creating a "catch and kill" strategy with friends in the press (which begs the question:  how many were there?) and then Trump for signing an agreement and trying

Looking at the American right you have strange positions being adopted such as Tim Scott a well-known ultra-right-wing Senator who on Thursday voted against the right of women to seek IVF treatment, and him, the next day, sending out a fundraising mailer which touted his strong support for IVF.  Something strange is happening. Last week Donald Trump said that Milwaukee was a terrible city, why he said that or whether he even said became a bone of contention.  His supporters are taking the position that he did not, yet on Thursday Trump confirmed on Newsmax that he had said that Milwaukee was a terrible city. Republicans live in an echo chamber.  They are satisfied as long as what they say is reported on either Newsmax or Fox.  They hear or listen to nothing else.  There was even a story where Trump had an employee whose SOLE job is to find positive news articles about him and print them for him to read.  Not just articles about him, but positive articles about him. Why watching the Ame

 For years The Saudis have insisted that oil be priced in US dollars, this was not a US demand it was convenient for the Saudis since the US dollar was stable, but it still is very stable... However, there is very little trade between the US and Saudi Arabia, and what trade there is is mostly Saudis buying American stuff.    The Saudis don't want to price anything in the local currency so they are now accepting Euro and Yen and Remibi too.  That helps the Chinese because they can just print the money.  Ask the Russians what they have been doing with the Remimbis...nothing. To think that the change from US dollars to other currencies is to misunderstand how the world of finance functions...granted they are probably the same people who say that crypto is a great investment and will take your head off about gold as the only real reserve currency.  No one in fiance cares because discussing the Saudi's decision as some kind of blow to America's currency is to completely misunder

Make no mistake about it what is currently happening in the US media about the sorry tale of stupidity by Supreme Court Justice Alito is a hit job by someone.  At least two ultra-right-wing justices on the Supreme Court have done incredibly stupid things.  First was Clarence Thomas who accepted millions of dollars in gifts from people who were interested in the outcome of cases in which he participated.  That's not to mention the nearly treasonous activities by his wife, in the January 6th affair.   The truth is that the dirt on Thomas is a real stain on the court's historically impartial opinions.   The hard truth is that the US Supreme Court is now a political court.   The story behind Justice Alito is funny in comparison but to me, this is all part of a plan to destroy the widely held view that the court is impartial.  Justice Alito decided to fly the US flag upside down.   First, as a Brit the American obsession with their flag is a little tiresome.  Still, flying the US fl

 The French will, it seems, beat us to the punch with their own elections.  It will be interesting in only one way, is the ascendency of the right in Europe a thing or was the recent European elections a flash in the pan.   Europe will find out very soon. As for us, the road has been well marked, the UK electoral process is a foregone conclusion.   It is still surprising to see the incompetence of Rishi on the stump, but it's entirely possible that he was neither a good leader nor a good campaigner...the end of a regime gives rise to strange outcomes. As for Europe, and France it's interesting but no more, it speaks volumes about the issues with immigration and the abject failure to integrate immigrants, but then Britain has very few lessons to teach there.   Should the right rise in France, currently Europe's predominant power, with Germany playing silly bugger, the impact on the EU will be minimal since the decisions are financial rather than political -- who pays for the

 Trump once again proved how unfit for office he is.   He has said many times mostly in private to big donors that he would go after his opponents; that means political, judicial or financial.  The gloves are off, and now he has said it on American National television.    Trump has yet to be elected but it is evident that his heroes are Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and any other two-bit despot you can think of naming here!   America has been given a stark choice for once, voting for the Republicans is a vote for a one-party state equal to what Putin or Jinping have created.   Again, greater if you are inside, not so much if you are outside.    We don't get Fox in the UK, but what my American friends are saying is that the programs on cable are all about the new dictator.  Donald Trump is their man and represents the reality of the republican Party.   The election of Trump in 2016 was when the veneer of respectability went away, and when outright racist and misogyny policies became th

 Farming is deja vu all over gain.  Year to year the jobs are the same.   The big events in our lives are private and will remain that way.  It is the wish of my children and their spouses, and I am perfectly happy with that. So more politics, if its interesting but little or no farming content.  If you are really interested read the old blogs Sorry

The headline is that Labour stands at 45% of the voter preference in the United Kingdom for the forthcoming elections.  Conservatives around 20% and Democrats and REFORM split the rest... Not that it is important but Reform stands shoulder to shoulder with the Democrats, let's be clear, most of the Reform vote are frustrated Tory voters who cannot vote Labour or the Democrats.   The split of 45/20/12/12 indicates one thing, it will be a landslide for Labour.   P.S.  the debate was booooring!   

Today the Daily Telegraph's headline is that the tories should be worried about the Reform Party.   I think they are right, a little, but on the very same day, the Reform Party completely changed its immigration policy.   Nigel did a 180. The question, therefore, is should the Tories be worried?  Yes because Reform will take away the "little Englander" vote, you knew them -- they hate all foreigners but have never met one!  Yes, those people.   Tories should not be worried because if Reform can change one of its most important party platforms on the fly, it means that they will say more crazy stuff.  You can trust Nigel on that one! The reality is that the Tories will get a sound trashing in a few days.   Assuming that Labour doesn't score an own goal, the new prime minister will have one of the largest parliamentary majority since the war.   Nigel and his friends will appropriate the more radical elements of the Tories (unfortunately Liz and Boris are going to stick

 For the Democrats this conviction means little.  For the Republicans, it means little too, although they have to wonder how Cohen can be a despicable criminal, for doing exactly what Trump has been accused of doing, and of the two the only one who really benefited was Trump. 20% of Republicans were already out of the door, the old-style Republicans are long gone from the workings of the party and are probably not even the type of people on the down tickets that Republicans would support. For the next six months, Trump will say that Justice is crooked and politically motivated while his friends in Congress try to change the ruling or find someone to get Trump off.  For the independents they know that Trump is guilty of a "technical crime" but, and that's important it is a crime.  Trump has vowed to seek revenge against the judge the jury and the prosecutor.   That will worry the independent voters.  They break down into three classes, mostly Republicans mostly Democrats a

Ukrainians have begun shelling and destroying key military targets in the city of Belgorod, one of the two logistical centres in Russia (near the border with Ukraine) for deploying men and ammunition into the Ukrainian war.    This is the first time that Ukrainian forces have been authorized to use Western weapons to target the enemy's key logistical support centre that had been central to the war in the northwest of the country.   The change has been long in coming, the French have for some time been directly present in the conflict, but it is the new message from the Kremlin that has begun to resonate in the European capitals that has hastened the shift that was always necessary for the war to be resolved in favour of Ukraine.    The new message from the Kremlin, so far via its "mouthpieces" is that Russia could soon start targeting Europe itself.   Therefore, European leaders have authorized the use of their weapons on Belgorod.  Tactically, the Russian forces attackin

 Obviously, everyone will first blame Rishi Sunak.   He has not been the greatest prime minister the Conservatives have ever elected, but the headwinds were too strong, and his backbenchers were clear that support for the current government would not be forthcoming.   Rishi did not want an election this summer, it was made clear that waiting was no longer an option. The guiltiest was Cameron.  He did call for the Brexit referendum, granted he probably assumed that it would fail.   He never thought that the thing had legs, everyone was surprised by that result!   The next ones to be blamed are Liz and Boris.   Liz will try to show/imply that she had nothing to do with all this, but she's nuts anyway.   Boris wants the job back, and I suspect that several of those who will survive the July bloodbath are supporters of Boris, and think of Boris as a verbally capable Donald Trump.   Egos are similar.   The next leader of the party that takes over 10 Downing Street is an unknown today, h

 Let's have a poll for the United Kingdom's worst prime minister...Liz is game she said she is not the worst.   Granted no one ever said she was the worst prime minister, just that's she batshit crazy...not the same thing.   I love elections, the crazies come out of the woodwork.  

I was surprised to see Nigel Farage running for office.  I thought that the Moron had left the country.   If there is ONE person to blame for Brexit in the country, Nige is your guy.   As my son used to say, in the Oxford Dictionary under Blowhard, there, 's a picture of Nigel... Yet, the Reform (reform what exactly?) Party is doing well.   The Conservatives should get that list of supporters and make sure that when they come back, the party fees will be twice as high, let's call it an idiot tax! Nige is talking as if he bears no responsibility for all the lies he said over the years, the fake "departure from Britain at Gagtwick incidence".   Also, have a look at his face in the Daily Telegraph -- Doesn't it scream for at least a good pie in the face.   AT college we used to have a name for a face like his, one you would gladly sucker-punch....still a good cream pie or two in the kisser would be an excellent outcome. Not a recommendation, just a sincere hope.   No