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Polling response rate -- importance in 2024

 In the 1992 general election, John Major's first (after the ousting of Margaret Thatcher) was the leader of the conservative government. All the pundits and the poll showed that the Conservatives were on the ropes and those who remember the times will remember the surprise by almost everyone about the Conservative win.   

At the time, there was a review of the changing dynamics of British society, but the head of Statistics at Queen's College made the following comments: "When only 36% of those polled answered the questions, it is hard to determine how the non-respondents will vote, especially when 76% of the eligible voters participated".

That was then, 36% of those contacted responded to the questions.  looking at the polling date now in 2024 the percentage of responders has dropped somewhat, the latest response rate is around 4%.   If Ipso or so other company contact 100 Brit, only 4 will respond.   It is hard to see on that basis how people will vote.  Also, these are what pollsters call likely voters.

That is the dilemma for polling.   It is an ancient way of determining how people will vote.   Now in the UK the level of dissatisfaction with the Tories is palpable, you feel it in the air.  Personally, I doubt that Reform has the level of support that pollsters are assuming, but who cares anyway, it's not like they will form the government or even the official opposition.   

However, and this is the truth, hard polling numbers are meaningless in close contests.  The only interesting thing right now is who will be third or fourth...amusing but hardly important, and certainly not an indicator of what will happen to the Tories in 5 or 10 years from now.


 

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