Skip to main content

Polling response rate -- importance in 2024

 In the 1992 general election, John Major's first (after the ousting of Margaret Thatcher) was the leader of the conservative government. All the pundits and the poll showed that the Conservatives were on the ropes and those who remember the times will remember the surprise by almost everyone about the Conservative win.   

At the time, there was a review of the changing dynamics of British society, but the head of Statistics at Queen's College made the following comments: "When only 36% of those polled answered the questions, it is hard to determine how the non-respondents will vote, especially when 76% of the eligible voters participated".

That was then, 36% of those contacted responded to the questions.  looking at the polling date now in 2024 the percentage of responders has dropped somewhat, the latest response rate is around 4%.   If Ipso or so other company contact 100 Brit, only 4 will respond.   It is hard to see on that basis how people will vote.  Also, these are what pollsters call likely voters.

That is the dilemma for polling.   It is an ancient way of determining how people will vote.   Now in the UK the level of dissatisfaction with the Tories is palpable, you feel it in the air.  Personally, I doubt that Reform has the level of support that pollsters are assuming, but who cares anyway, it's not like they will form the government or even the official opposition.   

However, and this is the truth, hard polling numbers are meaningless in close contests.  The only interesting thing right now is who will be third or fourth...amusing but hardly important, and certainly not an indicator of what will happen to the Tories in 5 or 10 years from now.


 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Spray painting Taylor Swift G650 aircraft (updated)

 First, a bit of paint will not harm anyone.  These climate activities are going to learn two things in the next few days:  (1) Trespassing at an airport is a felony almost anywhere in the world.  That means criminal prosecution.   (2) removing paint from an aircraft is expensive.   So these climate activists are about to find out the reach of the British criminal system and it will not be pleasant, the UK has very strict laws about that, I would be surprised if cleaning the aircraft of all the paint will cost less than $100,000.     I am sure that when they planned (premeditation) this little show they had a very valid logic to doing this.  Tonight, they are probably realizing the depth of their troubles.   I understand that in the UK it's a minimum one-year jail sentence.    Also, good luck travelling with a criminal trespass charge against you.  I am relatively certain that the airline industry will ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Farm; Half year performance

 People appear to be genuinely curious. 2024 has been a record first half for the farm.  The addition of high tunnels has greatly impacted our revenues.   While we expected Q1 profits to be higher, it really was the second quarter that produced the goods.  The terrible weather has greatly impacted the production of high-end vegetables. Energy costs are now very stable and have become a fixed variable especially now that our bio digesters are fully dialled in.   Replacing some of our pre-dryer equipment was covered under warranty, and the new equipment is far better at dealing with gas moisture, and much better steel!   Our diesel costs are what they are! Our biologist and ecologist devised a new planting plan for our high tunnels that greatly reduced pests, especially slugs.   We have seen a 90% decline in sluggs this year, resulting in better yields.   It seems that several plants act as natural repelants and if planted c...
Post a Comment
Read more

Britain, France and Egypt

 The voters realize now that the Conservative Praty desire to return to 19th-century dominance has driven its hatred of the EU.  The voters realize now that departure from the EU has accelerated Britain's decline and may soon make it irrelevant.  At best it will have to kiss American arses to maintain its standing.  For this, the conservatives were punished.  The decline of Britain was inevitable, competition from Frankfurt and Germany in Finance was bound to grow.  The core of Europe (aka Germany) is aging quickly Macron seems to be winning his bet, the left alliance that won the legislative elections will not remain united for long, since they disagree on about everything.   The Far right though it was about to assume power is once again relegated to the back of the bus.   It may draw its own conclusions, but not all of these are good for France.  The far-right has won nearly 1/3rd of the electorate, that is not something to be ig...
Post a Comment
Read more