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The impact of Trump conviction

 For the Democrats this conviction means little.  For the Republicans, it means little too, although they have to wonder how Cohen can be a despicable criminal, for doing exactly what Trump has been accused of doing, and of the two the only one who really benefited was Trump.

20% of Republicans were already out of the door, the old-style Republicans are long gone from the workings of the party and are probably not even the type of people on the down tickets that Republicans would support.

For the next six months, Trump will say that Justice is crooked and politically motivated while his friends in Congress try to change the ruling or find someone to get Trump off.  For the independents they know that Trump is guilty of a "technical crime" but, and that's important it is a crime.  Trump has vowed to seek revenge against the judge the jury and the prosecutor.  

That will worry the independent voters.  They break down into three classes, mostly Republicans mostly Democrats and the swing guys in the middle, about a third each.   the "mostly Republicans will probably go and vote, but abstain on Trump, they may stay home in great numbers.  Some will vote for Trump.  The Democratic-leaning ones will vote and vote often, and the ones in the middle will vote Democrat.  That is exactly what happened in the midterm.

The key to this election is that the Republicans have ramped up the anti-abortion anti foreigners and vote stealing.   That only works if the election is close.  If Biden is ahead 55/45 the election-stealing idea doesn't work.  Also if Biden gets most of the electoral college it doesn't work either.

Trump is in a pickle of his own making.   Sure is interesting.

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