Good old Nigel is now proclaiming his intention to run as PM in 2029. Good for him, I wish him luck with that. The bottom line is that in Nigel's small brain, the Conservative Party is already dead, and Reform will take over. Maybe but never underestimate voters' ultimate decision when they are in the polling station. Of course, the Conservative Party is entirely at fault for the Brexit fiasco. That Cameron still has a voice in the party tells you how desperate the party has become. However, confusing long-time supporters of the Party with an electorate adrift forever is really to misunderstand how people behave.
Nigel is looking for votes across the nation, he will go to Wales and Ireland and also Scotland to sell his brand, and the new "real" conservative party. However, and this is the important bit, in a country those who have the gold rule, and today neither Scotland nor Wales are net providers to the union. The hard cold and mean truth is that both Scotland and Wales need Great Britain more than Great Britain needs them. Scottish nationals know that Europe is not the panacea that is Westminster and have probably already been told that to rejoin the club would be very expensive, if even possible.
Still, Nigel will make promises he had no intention of keeping (it's a thing for good old Nigel) and for the low-information voters, it may be enough to peel them away from the Conservatives of the Scottish National Party, who knows.
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