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Belgorod: Changing the nature of the Ukraine war

Ukrainians have begun shelling and destroying key military targets in the city of Belgorod, one of the two logistical centres in Russia (near the border with Ukraine) for deploying men and ammunition into the Ukrainian war.   

This is the first time that Ukrainian forces have been authorized to use Western weapons to target the enemy's key logistical support centre that had been central to the war in the northwest of the country.   The change has been long in coming, the French have for some time been directly present in the conflict, but it is the new message from the Kremlin that has begun to resonate in the European capitals that has hastened the shift that was always necessary for the war to be resolved in favour of Ukraine.   

The new message from the Kremlin, so far via its "mouthpieces" is that Russia could soon start targeting Europe itself.   Therefore, European leaders have authorized the use of their weapons on Belgorod.  Tactically, the Russian forces attacking in the Northwest are seeing their supply lines begin to falter, this will certainly lead to a massive Ukrainian ground attack that will kill tens of thousands of Russian troops (far worse than the 5/6:1 that is currently being observed).

This is both a game changer and an escalation in the Russo-European war that is the natural conclusion of Putin's 20 years of aggression and nine successive wars to recover Soviet-era territories.   The immediate impact is to force Russia to dramatically increase the protection around Belgorod, and disperse its ammunition and fuel depots.   Because after two years of war, the Ukrainian high command knows exactly where all the key installations in Belgorod are located.  In addition, it will degrade all Russian activities in the area during the summer offensive.

Strategically, Russia will have to consider the position of Rostov-on-don its southeast and probably even more important military hub which provides the Russian armed forces the logistical support in the Ukraine war.   Now, Rostov-on-don is still too far from the front for Ukrainian ammunition to reach the city (European ammunition) but the Ukrainians have an accurate breakdown of where ammunition, fuel, equipment and key strategic installations are located, and this situation may change as the Russian army is forced to move men and equipment towards the Northwest front to support the Russian's key summer offensive into Kharkiv (Ukraine's second largest city).

Ukraine has been fighting the war with a prohibition from the Europeans and Americans that they, not shell or fight the war into Russian territory.   For the past month, Russian media has been discussing the possibility of Russia attacking European countries because of their support of Ukraine.   Everything in Russian media has been scripted by the Kremlin, the Kremlin controls all Russian media.  

The Europeans have taken the threat more seriously and have given the Ukrainians the go-ahead.  

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