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China playing peacemaker in the Gulf (updated)

How is that going to work?

In the past, the Americans and their might would bring different groups together and try to hammer a peace accord between the parties.  Sometimes it worked other times it didn't but in most cases, the US had its "imperial might" to back up its negotiations; either economical or physical (Navy).

The Chinese are trying to broker a deal in the Middle East between two parties (Saudi Arabia & Iran) who have hated each other for if not millennium for at least centuries.  The Chinese have no physical might, they have limited economic might, aside from a great need for oil products.

It's like a consumer trying to resolve a fight between two suppliers but has only its pocketbook available!

I admire the Chinese's willingness to walk into that minefield and wish them luck, both the Brits and the Americans never fully committed to such discussions.  

Still, it is a reflection of America's interest in the region, that no one in Washington is upset that the Chineses are taking over the role of global negotiator, in fact, Washington wishes Beijing well in its efforts.  

The downside for the Chinese is that if all this fails (and it's likely) they will look ineffective, if it succeeds China will have some oil deliveries for some time.  Failure is the likely outcome.  Iran and Saudi Arabia are well aware that the American 5th fleet is not really around much (it's in Italy right now), that there are less than 5,000 US soldiers in the Middle East (99% are military advisors -- usually contractors), that can be out of the region in days if needed.  About 1/3 are there to protect US embassies and other US government offices in the region.  Nature abhors a vacuum, and both Saudi Arabia and Iran see themselves as the natural leaders in the region (both with large armed forces) 

The disengagement of America is something the world has not seen since WWII.

UPDATE:  The Saudis have sent a press release stating that they are doing this despite the "warnings" from the White House and that America should not interfere!  The White House has been remarkably quiet.  The "buzz" is that the White House is actually happy that they've reopened their respective embassies, although it will give rise to more spying it will also open channels of conversations (beyond what the Swiss have been providing for the past 20 years).  Also, rumors are that the 5th fleet is staying in Europe rather than returning to the straight of Hormuz, because of events in Ukraine... (this could all be disinformation from my contacts)

 

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