Skip to main content

China playing peacemaker in the Gulf (updated)

How is that going to work?

In the past, the Americans and their might would bring different groups together and try to hammer a peace accord between the parties.  Sometimes it worked other times it didn't but in most cases, the US had its "imperial might" to back up its negotiations; either economical or physical (Navy).

The Chinese are trying to broker a deal in the Middle East between two parties (Saudi Arabia & Iran) who have hated each other for if not millennium for at least centuries.  The Chinese have no physical might, they have limited economic might, aside from a great need for oil products.

It's like a consumer trying to resolve a fight between two suppliers but has only its pocketbook available!

I admire the Chinese's willingness to walk into that minefield and wish them luck, both the Brits and the Americans never fully committed to such discussions.  

Still, it is a reflection of America's interest in the region, that no one in Washington is upset that the Chineses are taking over the role of global negotiator, in fact, Washington wishes Beijing well in its efforts.  

The downside for the Chinese is that if all this fails (and it's likely) they will look ineffective, if it succeeds China will have some oil deliveries for some time.  Failure is the likely outcome.  Iran and Saudi Arabia are well aware that the American 5th fleet is not really around much (it's in Italy right now), that there are less than 5,000 US soldiers in the Middle East (99% are military advisors -- usually contractors), that can be out of the region in days if needed.  About 1/3 are there to protect US embassies and other US government offices in the region.  Nature abhors a vacuum, and both Saudi Arabia and Iran see themselves as the natural leaders in the region (both with large armed forces) 

The disengagement of America is something the world has not seen since WWII.

UPDATE:  The Saudis have sent a press release stating that they are doing this despite the "warnings" from the White House and that America should not interfere!  The White House has been remarkably quiet.  The "buzz" is that the White House is actually happy that they've reopened their respective embassies, although it will give rise to more spying it will also open channels of conversations (beyond what the Swiss have been providing for the past 20 years).  Also, rumors are that the 5th fleet is staying in Europe rather than returning to the straight of Hormuz, because of events in Ukraine... (this could all be disinformation from my contacts)

 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

what people get wrong about tariffs

 The issue is simple. What percentage of the economy is dependent on tariff goods? The truth, is that the US economy is far more closed than people understand. People genuinely believe that all manufacturing has ceased to exist in the United States all given to China on the altar of woke policy the truth can be further from That statement. Only about 15% of US GDP is related to foreign trade. Of that amount, slightly more than half is from Canada in Mexico. And half of that is energy. What that means, is that about 7% of US GDP is tariff dependent. The proof in the pudding, is how little money tariff generates. People think that 30 or 50 billion is a lot it’s not in an economy that has $3 trillion. The impact on the US economy will be less visible but not absent. Inflation hasn’t occurred yet first because tests have hardly started to bite, but more importantly it’s such a small percent of the economy. Now certain things are critical. The rare earth metals from China were critical....
Post a Comment
Read more

Trump and Venezuela...

The US now owns Venezuela…and not in a good way.  America is not known for its nation building skills, and yet it now owns the disaster that is Venezuela.   Starvation and exodus are the natural progression.   In addition it will become a haven for narco-terrorists, more so than it already was. I am sure that Trump and his friends really thought that little attack very well…I guess that he will now attack Iran now.  
Post a Comment
Read more

Demographics

 I am preparing a kind of family tree for our children so that they know where they came from.  In my family I am the only survivor, although my brother and sister died recently they were both in their seventies (a story I told already).    It was a fun process, but it provided more than that.  First, I married relatively young I was 26 when I married and nearly 30 when our first child was born.   I was looking at my ancestors.  On my mother's side, she had 6 siblings, Four died before the age of 30, two in war, and two from illnesses.  Only she and a single sister survived.   The two boys had a child each but they died in WWII, and the other sister died as an infant.   what is interesting is that every one of my mother's siblings had children in their early 20s.   I know that my mom was hardly 20 when my brother was born.    What is remarkable is that among our friends, we are the only ones to have fou...
Post a Comment
Read more