So last night I was having dinner at a friend's house and their 17-year-old daughter was both pissed and vocal (it's a thing). My friend and I were discussing the risk of war in Taiwan and at one point I spoke of China's demographic problem, that the population curve was inverted and this was the first time in history where this happened, and that China's population would over the next 50 years collapse and that there was nothing that could be done about it, the meaning in the conversation is that China had a small window of opportunity to invade Taiwan (in about 3/4 years).
I didn't consider this to be a big issue, but rather a statement of fact, basic math. Well, my friend's 17-year-old took me to task about this, not entirely sure where she was going with this, but it was a fun evening because I could see a glint in her father's eyes! I was not family, a was just a random guy (BTW this was our third-ever meeting with the daughter).
So she says that (a) I'm wrong and (b) if I am right, it's a good thing. It took her a few minutes to say all that, so I am summarizing it here.
So I said, as to the first, I've got no skin in the game, and statistics are statistics, granted the Chinese seem to have overstated their total population (its actually slightly above 1.2 billion rather than nearly 1.4 billion). Somehow, I was using my "white privilege" in this statement, I told her kindly that statistics don't judge they reflect reality, but take no social impact position. She finally agreed that I was right -- took a few minutes.
She then said that it was a good thing because the world could not sustain a population of 8 billion. I said, I never made an issue of that when discussing it with her father, I just said that China, like many other countries would face rapid depopulation and that this would have a massive and unknown impact on the world.
She had not made the connection that a world of the 1950s where the population was 2.5 billion and where the vast majority was below the age of 15 and an 8 billion population where the majority was over 50 was not the same thing (she's 17 after all, and has no sense). I mentioned here, that today in China for every retired person there are four people in the workforce. However, by 2030 (a date she could understand), the proportion would be two to one, and it would get worse from there. She still didn't get it, I said, people who are supported need money to live either "pensions" or savings. The former are usually "unfunded" so it is paid by the current workforce.
Now she got it! She finally understood that when she turned 25 and paid taxes, a lot of her taxes were not to be serviced to her, but services to her parents. It was funny to watch the change, very much like anyone who wants more government services and is happy that corporations or rich people pay additional taxes...but not so happy when they have to foot the bill.
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