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Russia & Normality

A New York Times correspondent that was recently in Moscow, and knows the country well said that the most surprising thing was how normal everything was in the city.  How life appeared unchanged from his last visit two years ago.

  • Russia has been fighting a war in Ukraine for a year
  • Most of the conscripts are either (a) ex-prisoners or (b) from ethnic minorities.  Very few ethnic Russians have been conscripted (so far).
  • The official death toll still stands at slightly less than 6,000 (unchanged since May 2022).  The Brits estimated that between 50,000 and 60,000 have been killed but that total battlefield losses stand at between 175,000 and 200,000.  The Germans estimated that total losses (injured/dead or missing) stand between 100,000 and 200,000. Ukrainians state that total Russian losses stand at more than 250,000 the vast majority are dead because there is very little field treatment for injured soldiers in the Russian Army -- especially an army of conscripts.  Take your pick!
  • The total population of males between the age of 18 and 45 (age of conscription) is about 45 million, so total losses of 200,000 are less than half a percentage of the male population.  Insignificant, 
  • Prisons have been emptied to provide soldiers to the war in Ukraine, if the new soldiers survive six months (few have) they get full pardons.  They are now dangerous criminals with war experience and excellent weapons training, returning to Russia.  That's almost certain to bite the Russians in the ass ... eventually.
  • Since all news about the war in Ukraine is positive for Moscow -- support for the war by those in the 18-45 age range is around 45%, and it's around 75% for those above 45.
  • Rumors are that between half a million and a million Russian males between the age of 18 and 45 have left the country to avoid the draft.  Those who have left have marketable skills (especially IT).
  • Rumors are that the tank factories in Nizhny Tagil (the largest tank manufacturing plant in Russia) is having a hard time recruiting staff for a second shift...
  • The NY Time journalist mentioned that there is no longer a rule of law in Russia, but just the Rule of Putin and whatever he deems to be right.  Russia has a new Emperor and his name is Putin! So that's a change.

But, the long-announced "end of the world" in Russia has so far failed to materialize.  Still, there is no doubt that losing half a million (who can probably now never return because they left to avoid the draft) will severely impact the economy (eventually).  The further sense of dislocation is almost certain to reduce birth rates.  Women will not take the chance to get pregnant if they believe that their partner will go to war, and although the war is discussed in a positive light,, Russians are no idiots.  

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