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Jumping the line in trade talks -- UK options are opening

Thanks to the President of Brazil's crass (but not unexpected) "bribe" demand talks between Mercosur and Europe on a free trade agreement are "on hold" although there is a summit between the EU and Mercosur in the next few days.  The reality is that following the recent Argentinian presidential elections, Mercosur is in trouble.  The newly elected Argentinian President Javier Milei hates two things:  China (Argentina's single largest trading partner) and Luis Inacion Lula de Silva...the President of Brazil.  Whereas in domestic affairs the new President of Argentina has little leeway, he can do a lot on the international scene.  

That is the preamble, to my point despite strong European voices (e.g. Germany) EU bureaucrats know that the free trade agreement is now dead in the water.  That means that EU trade negotiators will focus on the next priorities on their long and exhaustive list.  Some are now redundant; a more in-depth relationship with Japan is now on the backburner since Japan signed a strong agreement with the Americans, southern Africa always a target is in such shamble, and its "military" actions in support of Russia (selling arms to the Russians), makes it a no go for any trade negotiations, so that leave the United Kingdom.

My single biggest fear is that Whitehall will cock-it-up.  They will "pull a Lula" condition that will shut down any serious conversations.  This may be done by those who still see Europe as the evil empire, those of the weak chin variety (most members of the 1922 Committee come to mind), and UK trade negotiators who have a long history of screwing up a sure thing.  A free trade deal is the only path forward for a normalization of our relationship with Europe.  The funny bit is that this trade agreement is almost certain to include a bit about the free travel of Europeans into the UK (the main reason why the Brits voted for Brexit...all these pesky foreigners), still, this is a huge opportunity for Downing Street to improve the situation.  

Over the past five years, the UK's farming community has seen massive improvements in it's economic outlook, are we concerned about Spanish tomatoes, of course, but there are many aspects where free trade is beneficial to both parties.  Honestly, not having European regulations on our food supply has reduced the amount of paperwork, and of rules that have little to do with UK farming practices.  

We would obviously be concerned if the UK market was flooded with cheap European foodstuff, but the reality is that plenty of food now makes it into the UK from Europe.  What has been slow is re-opening the sale of British foodstuff to the continent.   In other words, the EU has provided for the UK's food shortfall, but the UK has been largely excluded from European market (that's why so many UK farmers are pro trade talks with the EU).

We shall see what emerges, but the opportunity is there, the big question is will Downing Street and Whitehall seize the opportunity


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