Skip to main content

Remorse on Brexit -- its too late the world has moved on!

It was when the Daily Mail and the Telegraph (both strong pro-Brexit supporters) started to have articles about how "we" were sold a bad deal in voting for Brexit, that I wondered about my country.  The United Kingdom not only voted to exit the EU but had a second opportunity to change course and decided full speed ahead.

Of course, it's politically motivated, the Conservative "thinkers" cannot assume responsibility for the debacle, moreover, they ran the show, throughout the exit process.  There is no doubt that for these paleoconservatives Brexit was always going to be a success...because.  

A few facts:

(1) Many Europeans are happy to see the back of the United Kingdom, we were never committed to the Euro (never mind that France and Germany never supported the UK in its fight to remain in the EMU...).  We were always bitching and were not on the same development page at all.  

(2) Europe has serious problems of its own that have nothing to do with the UK

(3) Returning to the EU would require the UK to pay massive penalties/bribes -- when we just paid a few billions to get out.  

(4) The United Kingdom does not like the European justice system and the implied social contract

The UK was, by far, Europe's most open economy to immigration -- it has fallen a little since 2021, but it remains that the UK is still one of the most welcoming countries in Europe.  The Dutch have just elected a far-right Prime Minister.

The Germans are having their own existential problems;  Energy costs in Germany are nearly three times higher than in the US.  Germany remains a major user of oil & gas for industrial "exportable" production.  After Italy, Germany has the worst demographics.  For the past quarter of a century, Germany has made a bet on Russia, and they lost.  Unlike the Japanese that export their labor Germany "faked it", all BMW manufactured in the US are really only assembled there...Germany cannot change because of its social compact.

Until the early 2000s, the UK was 74% food-independent, it has fallen to 61% now.  It is almost certain to rise again.  Food prices have risen because it requires manual labor and there's less than there was in the past.  Our farm has no experience with foreign labour, not because we are better, but because our clients pay a premium for fruits and vegetables that are flavorful, so our picking is very different.  When you pick unripe fruits they develop little flavour but are easier to transport.  

For the UK, the solution has to be: to get a new trade deal with Europe.  The UK has a lot to offer Europe, and both parties will win.  The UK has a lot to offer, it's better at capital markets than Frankfurt and Paris by a long shot.    It will depend on the ability of those in charge of negotiations...time will tell, but Brexit is done, and there is no going back! 

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

what people get wrong about tariffs

 The issue is simple. What percentage of the economy is dependent on tariff goods? The truth, is that the US economy is far more closed than people understand. People genuinely believe that all manufacturing has ceased to exist in the United States all given to China on the altar of woke policy the truth can be further from That statement. Only about 15% of US GDP is related to foreign trade. Of that amount, slightly more than half is from Canada in Mexico. And half of that is energy. What that means, is that about 7% of US GDP is tariff dependent. The proof in the pudding, is how little money tariff generates. People think that 30 or 50 billion is a lot it’s not in an economy that has $3 trillion. The impact on the US economy will be less visible but not absent. Inflation hasn’t occurred yet first because tests have hardly started to bite, but more importantly it’s such a small percent of the economy. Now certain things are critical. The rare earth metals from China were critical....

The end of Tesla?

 it takes a special kind of idiot, to think that he can antagonize his entire customer base, and think that it will not impact his business. When Elon Musk went to work for Donald Trump, and created the doge department, he antagonized every liberal, and these people represent 90% of his client base.That’s not a brilliant move. Now Elon Musk is worth hundreds of billions of dollar, so he shouldn’t care a great deal, however, he needs to care because of several other issues. The cyber truck has been a disaster, most have had to be recalled because of defective glue, it’s not a truck, it’s not a car, it’s noisy, relatively uncomfortable, but great as a development platform. What Tesla has learned in making car manufacturing more seamless is truly amazing. The problem was that Elon Musk was so pissed with the Democrats, and with Joe Biden, in particular because of some slight, which were just plain stupid too. By the way, that he decided to support with hundreds of millions of dollar, ...

Demographics

 I am preparing a kind of family tree for our children so that they know where they came from.  In my family I am the only survivor, although my brother and sister died recently they were both in their seventies (a story I told already).    It was a fun process, but it provided more than that.  First, I married relatively young I was 26 when I married and nearly 30 when our first child was born.   I was looking at my ancestors.  On my mother's side, she had 6 siblings, Four died before the age of 30, two in war, and two from illnesses.  Only she and a single sister survived.   The two boys had a child each but they died in WWII, and the other sister died as an infant.   what is interesting is that every one of my mother's siblings had children in their early 20s.   I know that my mom was hardly 20 when my brother was born.    What is remarkable is that among our friends, we are the only ones to have fou...