Farmer Diaries

Yesterday, Boeing finally bowed to the inevitable and announced that the two astronauts stuck on the ISS would be coming down in a SpaceX, module in early 2025.   The Boeing space project has faced many problems in developing a new launch vehicle.   However, the issue at the company is far wider than just the space element of the company, its commercial aircraft business is suffering at the hands of the Europeans and now the Chinese, with the B737 knock-off. The demise of Boeing has been long anticipated, an aerospace company run for short-term profits was always bound to be a problem.  As Elon Musk famously said, an engineering company run by accountants will eventually fail. What emerged about  Boeing's capsule is far more worrying than was first reported.  there are three massive problems (1) About half the trustees are inoperable, (2) the vessel has run out of Helium, as it has leaked out, (3) wires have been found to be defective and traces of fir...

Barak Obama's hand gesture about Trump's crowd size obsession was not the first jab at laughing at the ex-President but it was a gesture that EVERY boy or girl on the planet recognized.   Obama was making fun of Trump, and that night the Democrats fully deployed their secret weapon, don't argue with Trump don't call him a fascist, make fun of him, and his size obsession, for it takes the air out of the room.  Even Fox News had to cover that one, and although they hate the Democrats with a passion, it's still amusing to see "the orange one" lose his shit! Trump has made it clear that he hopes/plans for mass insurrection if he loses the election.   He and JD Vance's new talking point is that the hundreds of polls being conducted are fake, and that "real Americans" support the GOP and Trump.  His rally on September 5th is entirely driven by that narrative, and the Democrat's best weapon is to make fun of Donald Trump to show him as a Buffon,...

 So last night we had dinner in London with two friends and their friends, it was a posh restaurant in the West End.   The couple were ardent Brexiters, not our cup of tea, but they were there.   The wife, Brenda, was complaining about the paperwork they needed to fill out now to stay in France, where they had bought a house nearly 20 years ago.    They were idiots because they could have obtained 20-year resident permit, before Brexit. but they did nothing now they are limited to stays of less than 180 days during any 365 days period.   They were pissed because France was treating them like foreigners. I really did not like them and I had an almost visceral dislike for Brenda who I thought was a very unpleasant and angry person.  So I asked her if she had voted for Brexit, and she proudly said that she had, and would do it all over again, so I simply said, so what are you complaining about, you wanted to be out, you are out, consider yo...

 The most amazing difference between the Democrats and the Republican conventions was the nature of the message, the Republicans talked about fear and the end of the world as they know it, while the Democrats talked about hope and growth.   The amazing thing of course is that it's not the Democrats that have changed it's the Republicans, their outrage machine has taken over the entire party, and it has taken over because it achieved the primary goal which is to raise money.   This week, it came out that the Trump family were paid nearly $28 million for services to the Republican party.   Two things to consider, the cost of fundraising for the GOP is extremely high, nearly 50% of the money raised is used to pay consultants.  In reality, this is a money grab by conservative operatives who see a golden opportunity to make money.   One of the reasons that the FEC only shows the GOP raising a quarter of what the Democrats raise is because so ...

 Vagary of the stock market never ceases to amuse me! It is easy to be consumed by the minutia of the stock market, in my opinion, a grave error.   First problem as an investor you have little understanding of the magic sauce that makes your investment companies a success.   Even the analysts will admit that they can understand a trend but not the decision process that makes a company successful. As I mentioned before the bulk of our "savings" are invested in productive assets, of course, we have used our stock holdings as security and borrowed against our liquid savings, but we both consider our "wealth creation" to come from the direct investments we have made. My day job was never to analyze the success of a particular stock, rather asset allocation was my thing, a more macro view of the world.   I was reminded of this by my "new" asset manager.   My previous broker retired, we both started at the same time in the same firm and he, like me...

 Our youngest daughter has been spending the summer with us.   Our eldest daughter is now fully moved into her quarters.    Everyone is in the main house right now, because my eldest daughter is on her honeymoon, and our granddaughter's father is away (he is not a bad guy just busy), so the house is full, my son and daughter-in-law are also up for the summer (son not so much, but our daughter in law has been here for two months with the baby).   We are loving it!    The best summer ever, and finally, the weather is cooperating.   the lower level of activity on the farm (on our part) means that I have a lot more time for my granddaughter and grandson (although he is only a few months old).    The best of all worlds...have a great summer!

 Once again the ranking for top universities came out last week.   Once again, the Ivy League schools dominate with Cambridge and Oxford in #4 and #6 place.    I know nothing about Harvard, or care for that matter, I attended King's and that was my choice, my wife attended Clare College.   Out of our four children, only our youngest chose Cambridge, she is about to finish at Christs, and follow her sister to medical school in London.    The thing is to call Harvard or Yale the best misses the point.   Schools are not interchangeable at all.  They each have their own high and low points, and it is important to understand that University College London may be better, or as in the case of our second son, a military school may be more to their liking.    The idea that Harvard is best is irritating, also it only includes English-speaking schools...As they say, there are some rather good universities on the European contine...

 Donald Trump has been facing a difficult month, since Joe Biden decided not to run for a second term.  A month ago, Donald was cruising towards an "easy" victory against a man that no one seemed to like.   Joe Biden was smart enough to realize that his odds of winning were too low and quit the race.    Kamila Harris was immediately anointed the chosen one and has proven to be excellent on the setup, far better than anyone had the right to anticipate.  She lucked out with her running mate and has shown America that a dynamic leader was nothing to behold. Donald Trump has tried all his tricks and they have uniformly failed.   He tried to portray her as a false black woman (she attended Howard University in Washington -- a predominantly black college) tried to portray her as soft on crime, not at all the reputation she had as the District attorney for California.  He tried to belittle her, nicknames but all of it has failed, even his proxi...

 The five day old incursion by the Ukrainian forces into the Kursk region, have shown the limits of Russian power, and also the flexibility of the Ukrainian arm Forces. According to Russian sources, the Ukrainians have gone more than 40 Kilometres inside Russian territory. This morning the Ukrainians announced that they did not intend to keep the territory. what the offensive of the past few days have shown is that Ukraine has decided to take its own initiative outside of what the OECD would prefer. It is evident that the Russians were taking their queue from European government that the Ukrainians would not invade Russian territory, the reason therefore why it was so poorly defended, this creates a huge headache for putting since he will be facing an obligation to Reinforce his territory in case Ukrainians pull the same stunt again. according to news media, the Ukrainians have sufficient forces that they can rotate troops in and out of theater. The implication, therefore is that t...

The images were horrifying there is no other way of saying it.   The drop from 17,000 to ground level in less than a minute must have been the most harrowing thing possible.   There are two culprits, (a) flying outside the flight envelope and (b) icing.    Which is the same thing, complete loss of lift.    From the stories, the aircraft was in a decent mode at 17,000 at 205 kn, when it suddenly dropped like a stone.   Flying outside the flight envelope usually occurs at altitude, and not on landing.  Few people are aware of this but at 40,000 feet the air speed difference between a high-speed and a low-speed stall is surprisingly small.    The reason icing is the likely culprit is that the ATR-500 has a long history of "medium icing performance", but also that pilots in the area were warned of icing conditions, as a pilot reduces speed, less hot air is bled in the wing leading edge, so it is more than possible that this wa...

 The current inflation push began with a pandemic when western Society had to adjust its production rate and consumption systems to take consideration the economic shutdown that occurred. What that means is that when people stop going to the office or going to the restaurant or going out they change your consumption patternsin the same way as demand for high dropped the demand for two by fours for constructions explodes because people have nothing better to do.  in the same way as demand for high dropped the demand for two by fours for constructions explodes because people have nothing better to do. That was the first wave The second wave was when the world returned to normal, and this process is near completion now too as demand for vehicle increases as return to the office has occurred then consumption pattern return to their old standards. These two changes. These two variances have led to inflation pressures because there are natural shortages that occur in these quick cha...

 Florida continues to impress. The reality that the new hurricane season has launched its first name and then a tropical storm that dumped more than a foot of water onto the stage, made the whole issue of insurance even more relevant since people are starting to lo your claims for losses as we speak.  The reality is that in 1992 the state of Florida with see about one $1 billion claims event every four years currently the state sees between one and three such claims piranha. The implication is that the rates need to Reflect the greater call on the insurance companies reserves. Between 1992 and 2024, almost 2 dozen Country wide in entrance companies quit the state or went into receivership. The reality of the insurance industry is that it can only survive as long as it’s reserves are there once these have been exhausted. The company has to shut its store. This happened with greater frequency over the past few years, and those companies have been replaced by local players with m...

True social media finally released its quarterly results for the second quarter ending June 30, 2024. The numbers were more or less in line with the revenues and losses of the previous quarter with total revenue of less than $1 million and total loss of about $16 million again, it only reflects the fact that revenues from advertising is dropping from the same period last year mainly because the revenues split had been modified after the IPO not, situation to make the company appear better before it is sold to investors.  this all means nothing because it’s clear that true social as a platform like Twitter is not an effective tool. The company has already indicated that they wanna move into media business and that’s why they spend an awful lot of money in the first quarter for that objective in mind, maybe they will be successful in that endeavour but right now the revenues are not there and the profits are certainly not there. The stock is doing any stock with no revenues and massi...

 well, the riots of 10 days ago have already started producing results in terms of convictions. So far 70% of those convicted for offences already have criminal records but what is truly amazing is how many have gotten relatively long prison sentences one even got a seven year prison sentence it is incredible that in this country, we have been able to bring people to justice and take them directly into jail for active committed in less than the fort whereas the Americans are still running after their six protesters four years after the events it shows the difference between the British and the American legal system .  It also indicates that the British legal system runs out much lower cost structure because what happened in the US is that law is represent all kinds of documents to slow the process down dramatic. No, is it slow down legal system but it also made it incredibly expensive. Interesting that how to countries with similar legal system can achieve very different resul...

 There is no doubt that the current push by Harris and Walz is driven entirely by the upcoming democratic convention into each time. However, it is incredible that would less than three months before the election that Trump is not campaigning at all. There has been multiple days in the past two weeks for Trump has played golf.  It’s as if Trump is not taking the campaign seriously. It could be that it has always been Trump‘s intention to try to steal the election post facto. There is no doubt that the Republicans are aiming at deeming the election as fraudulent if they don’t win.  It is well known that the GOP has hired a large number of lawyers and work tirelessly to put his people in place in each states electoral system. For Harris and walz they should therefore becomes existential. They have to show that they are winning by such wide margins that they are unstoppable. It’s hard to see how this can happen in America where the voters are so polarized, people just don’t ...

 well, it now seems that the Ukrainians have advanced into Russia proper almost 10 km. If this is true, it’s the first time since the war started or more than two years ago that Ukrainian have been attacking as opposed to defending. It is an important change in the war between the two countries.  it is hard to say how this will all end up. There’s no clear path to any form of victory because there can be no victories since the invasion of Ukraine has always been a way to something as opposed to destination for the Russians in order to secure their overall land borders.  What has been evident is that the Ukrainians have been largely stopped by the Americans from having important incursions into Russia, until very recently and so far most of these incursion have been done by Ukrainian develop weapons as opposed to F-16 for example that have been supplied by European countries. it is hard to see how Putin will pursue the war in Ukraine, So much of his modern weapon systems H...

 It’s interesting how quickly both of Central government and local government are taking action with regards to the rioters. I did not expect such quick action. It will be interesting to see how quickly this process moves through the court system. When you compare the English and the American System system you wonder what’s with the yanks. Dealing with a 2020 election fraud in Colorado, Wyoming and other states it’s now only starting now four years after the events. It is truly shocking. That justice is so slow when the events are so clearcut. anyway, this is where we stand today we seem to have a British legal system that responds to attack against the nature of who we are as people quickly. Where is the American taken ungodly time to resolve any simple issues why I don’t know, but it is the fact that the US legal system is ridiculously slow.  In his criminal cases, Donald Trump was indicted months ago, and yet the sentencing is not further a few weeks if not once.

 out with the old and in with the new.   Bangladesh is a country in existential crisis. The reality of living in a swamp has been problematic since the inception of the country in the early 1950s.  The resignation of the Prime Minister tells you nothing about the desperate state of that country. The new leader Nobel prize winner will face the same difficulties, and it is hard to see how he can solve these intractable problems. On one side, it is a growing population very much like in Africa, but it has none of the resources not even land. It is a tragedy in the making. Bangladesh the same problem as Egypt overpopulation insufficient land for growing food. And a world that doesn’t care. Because that is a reality of Bangladesh today, hundreds of died over riots the past few weeks and it hardly made the press until the president left the country. It would be ridiculous to think that any of this will change with the new president. In fact, there is no reason for anything to c...

It was bound to happen, there always was a strong nativist streak within British society, just looking at how the Brexit conversation was phrased... I think that giving oxygen to these people is exactly what they want,  the point is to create social tension to create fear and ideally to blame "others" for social ills.   

There are three ways to promote GDP growth: consumption-driven, investment-driven, and export-driven.   In other words, you build the stuff, you consume the stuff or you sell the stuff.   There is no other way! For over 40 years China has been an investment-driven economy.   In 1990 China had zero high-speed train network, in 2024 it had like 30,000 miles of railway.   However, the demand for the high-speed railway is finite.   The same goes for housing.  We have seen it all over Europe, Spain, Portugal, and Italy all suffer from overabundant homes so that in parts of all these countries you can buy a house for a dollar.  Even Germany has nearly 2 million vacant homes (as opposed to underutilized ones) it was in their most recent census. Since 2021 the CCP has realized that the investment route for GDP growth was no longer working.   More buildings would not solve the problem, and the second plank to raise consumption...

In 2018,  Tesla's stock price was around $22 a share.   It was the most shorted stock in NASDAQ, with 26% of the entire float (stock not owned by controlling shareholders) shorted.  Famously, Bill Gates was a massive player in the short end of the game  (FYI Gates has been a major player in the Green Revolution). Elon Musk made a deal with the Board of the Company that he would forego any compensation from the company until the end of 2022, where he would get a payment based on specific outcomes.  The board agreed but also gave him a salary of $37,000 per annum, which was the lowest salary in the company.   Elon Musk never took the money, it is still in the accounts payable.   In 2023, the total compensation amount came out to a staggering US$ 50 billion.   IN 2018 Tesla generated gross profits of $4 billion.  In 2023, Tesla generated gross profits of US$ 17.4 billion, and the share price rose from $22.00 to $248 (it has l...

 How does he do it over and over again? You may think that Tesla is total BS, but it remains that what he has done for the vehicle manufacturing process is as groundbreaking as what Herny Ford did more than 100 years ago.   The assembly of the Cybertruck the use of drive-by-wire technology, means that Musk's team have accelerated and simplified the manufacturing process.   He also recently announced that the new sub-compact electric car will redefine vehicle manufacturing.     There is a reason why Tesla earns between 5,000 and 6,000 dollars per car it manufactures, while Ford, GM and others lose money.     SpaceX is another example.  This week the company unveiled its new Raptor engine.  The third version, not only is it more powerful, it is lighter and is easier to assemble.   It is also a lot cheaper to manufacture. SpaceX sold 8 flights to the ISS to NASA for $3.1 billion.   Boeing has so far sunk n...

It may have made it to this side of the pound by now, but there's a rather explosive report in the US press that talks about the money that Egypt's CIA may have paid to Donald Trump.     Egypt is stuck in a Gordian knot, and Trump provided an escape, a way of cutting the knot.   The economic and political problems of Egypt are intractable.   A land that can possibly support 40 million inhabitants is home to more than double that number.   A ruling class separate from the people, and a US government withholding military aid. The story, if it is correct, is that the Egyptian CIA saw a solution in Donald Trump, they made a small bet of around $10 million, that Trump used to fund his campaign and when he got the job, he promised to release the billions that had been withheld by Obama. Bottom line the Egyptian CIA paid a bribe to Donald Trump and he used the money to fund his 2016 campaign.   The problem is that according to the story, W...

Now we know.  Before the bell this morning, Trump's Truth Social Network unveiled a plan to offer video or programming online with "Christian" and other themes.  I presume anything ultra right-wing...  We now know on what the company has been spending all its free cash (+$100 million in the first quarter of 2024).   The stock had been going up all week (+$3.00).   The stock is down to near its lowest level since the company went public last year.  The lock-up period is not over yet (contrary to what I wrote before) and the Q2 numbers are now rather late, as the quarter ended June 30th and we are now in early August (they should be out any day now for those who care).   Whatever the performance of the second quarter is, the sales pitch will be about the new media business rather than the business that was acquired.  Honestly, since the big boys that spent billions are having a hard time its hard to see how this will fare better, but ...

 It has become a catch-all phrase for the Democrats about the GOP's candidates and their policy objectives.  It is dismissive in a way that implies that it's a little crazy, a little out of touch and worse ill-advised.  Honestly, it is about as British as an American comment could be because it is so destructive. Calling something weird immediately poses a judgment without being an attack, it is a deeply personal way of addressing how others see the world.  For example, Mat Gaetz has negative views about the sexualization of children is weird considering his past behaviour (he is well known for recently dating underaged girls).   It makes a harsh judgment of the person without attacking them.    The person being called weird is forced to explain his position and often does all the damage himself.   The GOP's position on immigration is weird because the President offered legislation that met all their demands and they rejected it, that's ...

80% of polled independents in 2022 said that they did not want a rematch between Biden and Trump in 2024.   Also in 2022, More than half the Democrats indicated that they would prefer someone else than Biden to run in 2024.   Also in 2022, 80% of Republicans insisted that Trump was still President....(that last one is a joke) 10 days ago, the first two groups got their wishes.   Vice President Harris is now the "presumptive nominee" for the job.   Biden is out, and there is no one running against her.   Immediate impact, a surge of support in the form of enthusiasm.   Something like 100,000 people have offered to help at all levels of the ticket.  The second impact, the polls have shifted.   Whereas Trump was looking to cruise to a real victory (not a stolen election that he was clearly planning), the numbers are starting to look really bad for Trump. Third, the money is flowing at the rate of over 50 million a d...

The first article in the Times of Israel was that the crew of a Lufthansa flight to Tel Aviv diverted to Cyprus and is now en route back to Munich.   The easy read is that it's a battle between the very political pilot's union and the airline -- the hostages to the situation are the passengers who are 80% of the way to their destination (anyway that's what the Israeli newspaper implied) All this smells like a little fight inside Lufthansa...one tiny winy problem.   An hour ago, United and Delta announced that they had cancelled their upcoming flights to Israel.    Airlines cancel operations for two reasons: (1)  Their insurance company tell them to, by deeming a destination a war zone or warlike zone, which greatly reduces the airline's insurance coverage. (2)  Their operations managers on the ground deem the place too dangerous for their flight crews.    People would be surprised how often condition "2" is invoked.   However, ...