Skip to main content

Vagaries of the stock market

 Vagary of the stock market never ceases to amuse me!

It is easy to be consumed by the minutia of the stock market, in my opinion, a grave error.   First problem as an investor you have little understanding of the magic sauce that makes your investment companies a success.   Even the analysts will admit that they can understand a trend but not the decision process that makes a company successful.

As I mentioned before the bulk of our "savings" are invested in productive assets, of course, we have used our stock holdings as security and borrowed against our liquid savings, but we both consider our "wealth creation" to come from the direct investments we have made.

My day job was never to analyze the success of a particular stock, rather asset allocation was my thing, a more macro view of the world.   I was reminded of this by my "new" asset manager.   My previous broker retired, we both started at the same time in the same firm and he, like me, decided to do something else with his life.  His replacement is a 30-something woman, whom he has trained for the past decade.  She is highly competent and understands my needs.   She spent the weekend with us at the house, and money management was a short conversation.   

I pay my money manager a substantial amount every year to manage my money, so my objective is never to doubt her strategy but just to understand her goals.   Last year I paid nearly 200k in brokerage fees, which is fine, but it also means that I expect them to do the work, and she really does.   She inherited my old broker's team and is doing an excellent job at capital preservation and reasonable growth (less than 4% net per annum).   

Our investment in the farm, and the other businesses (there are nearly 10 now), are all in the agribusiness sector, 90% are in the transformation segment where all the money is made in the sector (farming and distribution being the poor cousins).   I say 10 because through our wholesalers we are in the process of acquiring a milk processing operation, that will take over the cheese and butter business, it's becoming too large for the farm, and the new business is less than 5 miles from our farm, so our employees will be unaffected (they are simply physically moving to the new operations), the key is that our dairy operations (both cows and goats) have grown tremendously, and was contemplating expanding the facilities at the farm, it was a lot cheaper to purchase the new plant, which comes with a master cheese maker...

Now, I mentioned these two things because I consider them separate; the fruits of our labour in investment in small companies in the agro sector is where we plan to create generational wealth.   Not the stock market.   Where preservation is the key focus.   The nine businesses we partially acquired have seen massive increases in profitability.   As I mentioned before, the margins in the transformation businesses are an order of magnitude greater than in the farming and selling of agricultural products.  In the case of the milk processing business, the problem was identical, an inability to access more capital that was creating artificial constraints on production.   

What they had in place was an order of magnitude better than what we have at the farm in terms of technology and know-how.   Demand for our butter exclips the supply, just the ability to fully service our butter restaurant trade is huge because the demand is there.  The same with the cheeses we manufacture.  We are able to finance a huge increase in the business volume.   This will help the current owner, who remains a minority shareholder and will liberate critical space on the farm.

Our calving season has been exceptional for the past two years.   So our heard has grown by nearly 50%.










Comments

Popular posts from this blog

what people get wrong about tariffs

 The issue is simple. What percentage of the economy is dependent on tariff goods? The truth, is that the US economy is far more closed than people understand. People genuinely believe that all manufacturing has ceased to exist in the United States all given to China on the altar of woke policy the truth can be further from That statement. Only about 15% of US GDP is related to foreign trade. Of that amount, slightly more than half is from Canada in Mexico. And half of that is energy. What that means, is that about 7% of US GDP is tariff dependent. The proof in the pudding, is how little money tariff generates. People think that 30 or 50 billion is a lot it’s not in an economy that has $3 trillion. The impact on the US economy will be less visible but not absent. Inflation hasn’t occurred yet first because tests have hardly started to bite, but more importantly it’s such a small percent of the economy. Now certain things are critical. The rare earth metals from China were critical....

The end of Tesla?

 it takes a special kind of idiot, to think that he can antagonize his entire customer base, and think that it will not impact his business. When Elon Musk went to work for Donald Trump, and created the doge department, he antagonized every liberal, and these people represent 90% of his client base.That’s not a brilliant move. Now Elon Musk is worth hundreds of billions of dollar, so he shouldn’t care a great deal, however, he needs to care because of several other issues. The cyber truck has been a disaster, most have had to be recalled because of defective glue, it’s not a truck, it’s not a car, it’s noisy, relatively uncomfortable, but great as a development platform. What Tesla has learned in making car manufacturing more seamless is truly amazing. The problem was that Elon Musk was so pissed with the Democrats, and with Joe Biden, in particular because of some slight, which were just plain stupid too. By the way, that he decided to support with hundreds of millions of dollar, ...

Demographics

 I am preparing a kind of family tree for our children so that they know where they came from.  In my family I am the only survivor, although my brother and sister died recently they were both in their seventies (a story I told already).    It was a fun process, but it provided more than that.  First, I married relatively young I was 26 when I married and nearly 30 when our first child was born.   I was looking at my ancestors.  On my mother's side, she had 6 siblings, Four died before the age of 30, two in war, and two from illnesses.  Only she and a single sister survived.   The two boys had a child each but they died in WWII, and the other sister died as an infant.   what is interesting is that every one of my mother's siblings had children in their early 20s.   I know that my mom was hardly 20 when my brother was born.    What is remarkable is that among our friends, we are the only ones to have fou...